PHIEagles
-
25
TBD
Gillette Stadium
70°F
020
NEPatriots
-
TBD
Gillette Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Eagles
10
0
3
6
19
Patriots
0
14
0
6
20
Spread
-3.5
Total
OVER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
251
382
Total Plays
61
79
Yards / Play
4.1
4.8
EPA / Play
-0.08
-0.20
Passing Yards
154
306
Comp/Att
22/33(67%)
35/55(64%)
Yards / Pass
4.7
5.6
EPA / Pass
-0.15
-0.23
Rushing Yards
97
76
Rush Attempts
25
22
Yards / Rush
3.9
3.5
EPA / Rush
-0.16
-0.16
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
24
Passing 1st downs
8
18
Rushing 1st downs
6
5
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
31%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
15
Red Zone %
50%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-3.42
-14.64
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-16
-10
Sack EPA
-3.66
-2.06
Penalties
5
7
Penalty Yards
49
50
Penalty EPA
-4.31
-4.16
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.9%
Model62.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-41
Home nfelo
1,533
Away nfelo
1,601
Home Field
+42.4
Base HFA
+42.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-14.7
Home QB Adjustment
-3.7
Away QB Adjustment
+11.0
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-91.7
Model Spread
+3.5
Quarterbacks
J. Hurts
Proj. Value
+2.4
Team Elo Adj
+11.0
M. Jones
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-3.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Eagles Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
14
Yards / Game
9
6
Passing Yards / Game
10
8
Rushing Yards / Game
9
3
EPA
EPA / Play
7
6
EPA / Pass
10
20
EPA / Rush
6
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
9
Interceptions / Game
24
23
Fumbles / Game
25
26
Turnover EPA / Game
8
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
7
4th Down Efficiency
1
20
RZ Efficiency
9
5
Patriots Offense vs Eagles Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
30
Yards / Game
30
26
Passing Yards / Game
31
32
Rushing Yards / Game
25
11
EPA
EPA / Play
32
30
EPA / Pass
31
29
EPA / Rush
22
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
22
Interceptions / Game
30
26
Fumbles / Game
16
24
Turnover EPA / Game
4
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
30
4th Down Efficiency
32
25
RZ Efficiency
11
29
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Eagles
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Patriots
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U