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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. eagles @ patriots week 1, 2023

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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PHI logo
PHIEagles
-
25
TBD
Gillette Stadium
70°F
0
20
NEPatriots
-
NE logo
TBD
Gillette Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Eagles
10
0
3
6
19
Patriots
0
14
0
6
20

Spread

PHI logo
-3.5

Total

OVER
44.5

Game Statistics

General
Eagles logo
Patriots logo
Total Yards
251
382
Total Plays
61
79
Yards / Play
4.1
4.8
EPA / Play
-0.08
-0.20
Passing Yards
154
306
Comp/Att
22/33(67%)
35/55(64%)
Yards / Pass
4.7
5.6
EPA / Pass
-0.15
-0.23
Rushing Yards
97
76
Rush Attempts
25
22
Yards / Rush
3.9
3.5
EPA / Rush
-0.16
-0.16
Downs & Conversions
Eagles logo
Patriots logo
1st Downs
17
24
Passing 1st downs
8
18
Rushing 1st downs
6
5
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
31%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
15
Red Zone %
50%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Eagles logo
Patriots logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-3.42
-14.64
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-16
-10
Sack EPA
-3.66
-2.06
Penalties
5
7
Penalty Yards
49
50
Penalty EPA
-4.31
-4.16

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
PHI logo
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market62.9%
Model62.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-41
Home nfelo
1,530
Away nfelo
1,599
Home Field
+42.4
Base HFA
+42.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-14.7
Home QB Adjustment
-3.7
Away QB Adjustment
+11.1
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-91.7
Model Spread
+3.5

Quarterbacks

J. Hurts headshot

J. Hurts

Proj. Value
+1.1
Team Elo Adj
+11.1
Value
Ptile
11/14
2.1
69
11/20
5.0
85
11/27
9.0
95
12/04
10.8
97
12/11
6.7
91
12/18
5.3
86
01/08
-6.1
13
01/21
3.4
78
01/29
0.1
54
02/12
12.2
98
M. Jones headshot

M. Jones

Proj. Value
+0.1
Team Elo Adj
-3.7
Value
Ptile
10/30
-6.1
13
11/06
-4.7
20
11/20
-2.7
30
11/24
5.2
85
12/01
0.7
57
12/12
-4.1
23
12/18
-7.9
7
12/24
-0.4
49
01/01
-2.4
33
01/08
-0.1
52

Team Matchup Ranks

Eagles Offense vs Patriots Defense
Eagles logo
Patriots logo

Total

Points / Game
7
14
Yards / Game
9
6
Passing Yards / Game
10
8
Rushing Yards / Game
9
3

EPA

EPA / Play
7
6
EPA / Pass
10
20
EPA / Rush
6
1

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
16
9
Interceptions / Game
24
23
Fumbles / Game
25
26
Turnover EPA / Game
8
6

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
5
7
4th Down Efficiency
1
20
RZ Efficiency
9
5
Patriots Offense vs Eagles Defense
Patriots logo
Eagles logo

Total

Points / Game
31
30
Yards / Game
30
26
Passing Yards / Game
31
32
Rushing Yards / Game
25
11

EPA

EPA / Play
32
30
EPA / Pass
31
29
EPA / Rush
22
32

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
6
22
Interceptions / Game
30
26
Fumbles / Game
16
24
Turnover EPA / Game
4
11

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
31
30
4th Down Efficiency
32
25
RZ Efficiency
11
29

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

PHI logo

Eagles

7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/27
7
W
W
O
12/04
25
W
W
O
12/11
26
W
W
O
12/18
5
W
L
U
12/24
-6
L
L
O
01/01
-10
L
L
U
01/08
6
W
L
U
01/21
31
W
W
U
01/29
24
W
W
U
02/12
-3
L
L
O
NE logo

Patriots

5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/30
5
W
W
U
11/06
23
W
W
U
11/20
7
W
W
U
11/24
-7
L
L
O
12/01
-14
L
L
U
12/12
14
W
W
U
12/18
-6
L
L
O
12/24
-4
L
L
U
01/01
2
W
L
O
01/08
-12
L
L
O