PHIEagles
15-3
41
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
033
NEPatriots
15-3
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Eagles
9
13
7
12
41
Patriots
3
9
14
7
33
Spread
+4.5
Total
OVER
48.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
538
613
Total Plays
73
72
Yards / Play
7.4
8.5
EPA / Play
+0.37
+0.25
Passing Yards
--
500
Comp/Att
29/46(63%)
28/49(57%)
Yards / Pass
--
10.2
EPA / Pass
+0.50
+0.39
Rushing Yards
164
113
Rush Attempts
27
22
Yards / Rush
6.1
5.1
EPA / Rush
+0.20
+0.06
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
25
29
Passing 1st downs
19
23
Rushing 1st downs
6
4
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
63%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
10
5
3rd Down Attempts
16
10
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-3.12
-4.84
Sacks
--
1
Sack Yards
--
-5
Sack EPA
--
-4.84
Penalties
6
1
Penalty Yards
35
--
Penalty EPA
-5.13
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-4.5
Model
-5.0
Win Probability
Market66.1%
Model67.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+157
Home nfelo
1,699
Away nfelo
1,626
Home Field
+19.6
Base HFA
--
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.6
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+50.2
Home QB Adjustment
-3.0
Away QB Adjustment
-53.2
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
124.4
Model Spread
-5.0
Quarterbacks
N. Foles
Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
-53.2
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
-3.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Eagles Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
7
Yards / Game
4
30
Passing Yards / Game
7
28
Rushing Yards / Game
3
20
EPA
EPA / Play
4
26
EPA / Pass
2
24
EPA / Rush
11
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
21
Interceptions / Game
4
22
Fumbles / Game
22
30
Turnover EPA / Game
29
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
22
4th Down Efficiency
3
17
RZ Efficiency
2
7
Patriots Offense vs Eagles Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
4
Yards / Game
1
9
Passing Yards / Game
2
26
Rushing Yards / Game
15
1
EPA
EPA / Play
1
5
EPA / Pass
1
7
EPA / Rush
8
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
22
Interceptions / Game
2
6
Fumbles / Game
6
2
Turnover EPA / Game
31
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
3
4th Down Efficiency
4
2
RZ Efficiency
3
12
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Eagles
8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Patriots
9-1
SU
8-2
ATS
4-6
O/U