PHIEagles
4-0
23
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
014
LARRams
2-2
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Eagles
7
10
0
6
23
Rams
7
7
0
0
14
Spread
-3.5
Total
UNDER
50.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
454
249
Total Plays
78
55
Yards / Play
5.8
4.5
EPA / Play
+0.16
-0.02
Passing Yards
295
195
Comp/Att
25/38(66%)
21/37(57%)
Yards / Pass
7.8
5.3
EPA / Pass
+0.20
-0.07
Rushing Yards
159
54
Rush Attempts
39
14
Yards / Rush
4.1
3.9
EPA / Rush
+0.10
+0.17
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
28
17
Passing 1st downs
13
13
Rushing 1st downs
12
2
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
72%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
13
6
3rd Down Attempts
18
14
Red Zone %
33%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
6
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-6.20
--
Sacks
1
4
Sack Yards
-8
-27
Sack EPA
-1.25
-6.18
Penalties
3
5
Penalty Yards
35
48
Penalty EPA
-6.41
-7.62
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.9%
Model62.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-46
Home nfelo
1,497
Away nfelo
1,608
Home Field
+65.7
Base HFA
+43.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.0
Time Adj
+7.7
Net QB Adjustment
-0.2
Home QB Adjustment
+4.9
Away QB Adjustment
+5.1
Market Regression
+1.3
Final Difference
-91.7
Model Spread
+3.5
Quarterbacks
J. Hurts
Proj. Value
+2.3
Team Elo Adj
+5.1
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+4.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Eagles Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
18
Yards / Game
9
18
Passing Yards / Game
10
29
Rushing Yards / Game
9
13
EPA
EPA / Play
7
21
EPA / Pass
10
19
EPA / Rush
6
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
26
Interceptions / Game
24
24
Fumbles / Game
25
30
Turnover EPA / Game
8
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
16
4th Down Efficiency
1
24
RZ Efficiency
9
20
Rams Offense vs Eagles Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
30
Yards / Game
7
26
Passing Yards / Game
12
32
Rushing Yards / Game
12
11
EPA
EPA / Play
11
30
EPA / Pass
7
29
EPA / Rush
8
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
22
Interceptions / Game
18
26
Fumbles / Game
3
24
Turnover EPA / Game
23
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
30
4th Down Efficiency
5
25
RZ Efficiency
8
29
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Eagles
7-3
SU
4-5-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Rams
4-6
SU
7-2-1
ATS
4-6
O/U