PHIEagles
5-8
26
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
62°F
9 mph
27
BALRavens
7-6
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
62°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Eagles
3
11
0
12
26
Ravens
10
10
0
7
27
Spread
+5
Total
OVER
41
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
330
340
Total Plays
83
57
Yards / Play
4.0
6.0
EPA / Play
+0.02
-0.01
Passing Yards
159
189
Comp/Att
22/43(51%)
16/30(53%)
Yards / Pass
3.7
6.3
EPA / Pass
-0.23
-0.22
Rushing Yards
171
151
Rush Attempts
39
24
Yards / Rush
4.4
6.3
EPA / Rush
+0.13
+0.10
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
27
18
Passing 1st downs
10
12
Rushing 1st downs
13
4
Penalty 1st downs
4
2
3rd Down %
44%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
8
4
3rd Down Attempts
18
11
Red Zone %
40%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-3.40
-11.33
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-11
-17
Sack EPA
-2.43
-8.42
Penalties
3
7
Penalty Yards
30
62
Penalty EPA
-2.88
-5.08
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-5.0
Model
-5.0
Win Probability
Market67.1%
Model67.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+137
Home nfelo
1,560
Away nfelo
1,501
Home Field
+57.4
Base HFA
+57.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+20.9
Home QB Adjustment
+12.7
Away QB Adjustment
-8.2
Market Regression
-7.1
Final Difference
123.8
Model Spread
-5.0
Quarterbacks
C. Wentz
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-8.2
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+12.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Eagles Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
9
Yards / Game
20
7
Passing Yards / Game
22
16
Rushing Yards / Game
9
5
EPA
EPA / Play
16
6
EPA / Pass
20
11
EPA / Rush
13
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
19
Interceptions / Game
16
1
Fumbles / Game
7
8
Turnover EPA / Game
23
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
2
4th Down Efficiency
18
25
RZ Efficiency
25
23
Ravens Offense vs Eagles Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
11
Yards / Game
17
12
Passing Yards / Game
14
3
Rushing Yards / Game
28
15
EPA
EPA / Play
19
10
EPA / Pass
26
5
EPA / Rush
15
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
19
Interceptions / Game
21
8
Fumbles / Game
2
17
Turnover EPA / Game
19
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
19
4th Down Efficiency
26
11
RZ Efficiency
19
3
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Eagles
2-8
SU
2-8
ATS
6-4
O/U
Ravens
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U