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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. eagles @ ravens week 15, 2016

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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PHI logo
PHIEagles
5-8
26
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
62°F
9 mph
27
BALRavens
7-6
BAL logo
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
62°F
9 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Eagles
3
11
0
12
26
Ravens
10
10
0
7
27

Spread

PHI logo
+5

Total

OVER
41

Game Statistics

General
Eagles logo
Ravens logo
Total Yards
330
340
Total Plays
83
57
Yards / Play
4.0
6.0
EPA / Play
+0.02
-0.01
Passing Yards
159
189
Comp/Att
22/43(51%)
16/30(53%)
Yards / Pass
3.7
6.3
EPA / Pass
-0.23
-0.22
Rushing Yards
171
151
Rush Attempts
39
24
Yards / Rush
4.4
6.3
EPA / Rush
+0.13
+0.10
Downs & Conversions
Eagles logo
Ravens logo
1st Downs
27
18
Passing 1st downs
10
12
Rushing 1st downs
13
4
Penalty 1st downs
4
2
3rd Down %
44%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
8
4
3rd Down Attempts
18
11
Red Zone %
40%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Eagles logo
Ravens logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-3.40
-11.33
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-11
-17
Sack EPA
-2.43
-8.42
Penalties
3
7
Penalty Yards
30
62
Penalty EPA
-2.88
-5.08

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
BAL logo
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-5.0
Model
-5.0

Win Probability

Market67.1%
Model67.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+136
Home nfelo
1,559
Away nfelo
1,502
Home Field
+58.1
Base HFA
+58.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+20.9
Home QB Adjustment
+12.7
Away QB Adjustment
-8.2
Market Regression
-7.1
Final Difference
123.8
Model Spread
-5.0

Quarterbacks

C. Wentz headshot

C. Wentz

Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
-8.2
Value
Ptile
10/09
0.4
53
10/16
-8.4
4
10/23
-4.1
19
10/30
-0.5
45
11/06
-4.1
19
11/13
-1.4
37
11/20
-4.7
16
11/28
-0.9
42
12/04
-2.5
29
12/11
-1.3
39
J. Flacco headshot

J. Flacco

Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
+12.7
Value
Ptile
10/02
3.1
73
10/09
-1.3
38
10/16
-2.5
29
10/23
-6.9
8
11/06
-3.4
24
11/10
1.8
63
11/20
1.6
61
11/27
0.2
50
12/04
11.7
99
12/12
4.3
80

Team Matchup Ranks

Eagles Offense vs Ravens Defense
Eagles logo
Ravens logo

Total

Points / Game
16
9
Yards / Game
20
7
Passing Yards / Game
22
16
Rushing Yards / Game
9
5

EPA

EPA / Play
16
6
EPA / Pass
20
11
EPA / Rush
13
5

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
15
19
Interceptions / Game
16
1
Fumbles / Game
7
8
Turnover EPA / Game
23
20

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
18
2
4th Down Efficiency
18
25
RZ Efficiency
25
23
Ravens Offense vs Eagles Defense
Ravens logo
Eagles logo

Total

Points / Game
20
11
Yards / Game
17
12
Passing Yards / Game
14
3
Rushing Yards / Game
28
15

EPA

EPA / Play
19
10
EPA / Pass
26
5
EPA / Rush
15
19

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
7
19
Interceptions / Game
21
8
Fumbles / Game
2
17
Turnover EPA / Game
19
26

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
23
19
4th Down Efficiency
26
11
RZ Efficiency
19
3

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

PHI logo

Eagles

2-8
SU
2-8
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/09
-1
L
L
O
10/16
-7
L
L
O
10/23
11
W
W
U
10/30
-6
L
L
O
11/06
-5
L
L
O
11/13
9
W
W
U
11/20
-11
L
L
U
11/28
-14
L
L
U
12/04
-18
L
L
O
12/11
-5
L
L
O
BAL logo

Ravens

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/02
-1
L
L
O
10/09
-6
L
L
U
10/16
-4
L
L
O
10/23
-8
L
L
U
11/06
7
W
W
U
11/10
21
W
W
U
11/20
-10
L
L
U
11/27
5
W
W
U
12/04
32
W
W
O
12/12
-7
L
L
O