PHIEagles
3-4
13
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
028
NOSaints
2-5
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Eagles
0
3
10
0
13
Saints
1
14
7
0
22
Spread
-2.5
Total
UNDER
52
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
447
371
Total Plays
77
54
Yards / Play
5.8
6.9
EPA / Play
-0.12
+0.07
Passing Yards
226
231
Comp/Att
22/41(54%)
21/27(78%)
Yards / Pass
5.5
8.6
EPA / Pass
-0.33
+0.35
Rushing Yards
221
140
Rush Attempts
29
25
Yards / Rush
7.6
5.6
EPA / Rush
+0.31
+0.10
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
20
Passing 1st downs
13
14
Rushing 1st downs
10
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
38%
56%
3rd Down Conversions
6
5
3rd Down Attempts
16
9
Red Zone %
0%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
2
Turnover EPA
-14.86
-11.04
Sacks
7
2
Sack Yards
-46
-8
Sack EPA
-7.11
-6.77
Penalties
7
4
Penalty Yards
58
35
Penalty EPA
-15.89
-3.41
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model58.3%
Spread Pick
Saints-2.5
Expected Value
+5.8%
Cover Probability
55.4%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+120
Home nfelo
1,564
Away nfelo
1,543
Home Field
+95.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+3.0
Home QB Adjustment
+1.4
Away QB Adjustment
-1.6
Market Regression
-46.8
Final Difference
58.5
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
M. Vick
Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
-1.6
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+1.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Eagles Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
31
Yards / Game
17
32
Passing Yards / Game
6
28
Rushing Yards / Game
13
32
EPA
EPA / Play
27
30
EPA / Pass
24
29
EPA / Rush
27
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
26
Interceptions / Game
14
15
Fumbles / Game
32
16
Turnover EPA / Game
1
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
16
4th Down Efficiency
10
20
RZ Efficiency
29
22
Saints Offense vs Eagles Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
29
Yards / Game
2
14
Passing Yards / Game
3
3
Rushing Yards / Game
25
21
EPA
EPA / Play
8
29
EPA / Pass
8
31
EPA / Rush
12
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
5
Interceptions / Game
28
30
Fumbles / Game
3
26
Turnover EPA / Game
14
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
27
4th Down Efficiency
12
1
RZ Efficiency
3
19
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Eagles
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Saints
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
8-2
O/U