PHIEagles
10-7
14
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
020
NOSaints
13-3
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Eagles
14
0
0
0
14
Saints
0
10
7
3
20
Spread
+8.5
Total
UNDER
52
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
250
420
Total Plays
47
71
Yards / Play
5.3
5.9
EPA / Play
-0.09
+0.02
Passing Yards
--
283
Comp/Att
18/31(58%)
28/38(74%)
Yards / Pass
--
7.4
EPA / Pass
-0.07
+0.27
Rushing Yards
49
137
Rush Attempts
16
31
Yards / Rush
3.1
4.4
EPA / Rush
-0.14
-0.04
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
25
Passing 1st downs
11
14
Rushing 1st downs
2
9
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
29%
53%
3rd Down Conversions
2
8
3rd Down Attempts
7
15
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-7.73
-3.15
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-18
Sack EPA
--
-3.95
Penalties
4
11
Penalty Yards
30
84
Penalty EPA
-3.00
-8.91
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-8.0
Current
-8.5
Model
-8.5
Win Probability
Market76.8%
Model76.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+220
Home nfelo
1,646
Away nfelo
1,566
Home Field
+105.0
Base HFA
+57.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+16.6
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.2
Time Adj
+10.3
Net QB Adjustment
+15.3
Home QB Adjustment
+6.9
Away QB Adjustment
-8.5
Market Regression
+10.6
Final Difference
207.9
Model Spread
-8.5
Quarterbacks
N. Foles
Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
-8.5
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+6.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Eagles Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
14
Yards / Game
17
12
Passing Yards / Game
11
17
Rushing Yards / Game
30
2
EPA
EPA / Play
11
11
EPA / Pass
11
21
EPA / Rush
22
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
30
Interceptions / Game
21
15
Fumbles / Game
24
7
Turnover EPA / Game
12
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
23
4th Down Efficiency
16
7
RZ Efficiency
17
23
Saints Offense vs Eagles Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
9
Yards / Game
8
23
Passing Yards / Game
21
29
Rushing Yards / Game
9
6
EPA
EPA / Play
2
22
EPA / Pass
2
22
EPA / Rush
13
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
22
Interceptions / Game
4
25
Fumbles / Game
13
25
Turnover EPA / Game
23
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
8
4th Down Efficiency
2
20
RZ Efficiency
4
1
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Eagles
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Saints
8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U