PHIEagles
3-2
20
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
038
MINVikings
3-2
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Eagles
0
10
10
0
20
Vikings
10
14
7
7
38
Spread
-3.5
Total
OVER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
400
447
Total Plays
65
65
Yards / Play
6.2
6.9
EPA / Play
-0.12
+0.16
Passing Yards
292
325
Comp/Att
26/41(63%)
22/29(76%)
Yards / Pass
7.1
11.2
EPA / Pass
-0.09
+0.57
Rushing Yards
108
122
Rush Attempts
22
35
Yards / Rush
4.9
3.5
EPA / Rush
-0.18
-0.25
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
26
Passing 1st downs
15
14
Rushing 1st downs
3
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
4
3rd Down %
33%
20%
3rd Down Conversions
4
2
3rd Down Attempts
12
10
Red Zone %
100%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
2
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-11.22
-7.68
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-14
-8
Sack EPA
-3.71
-2.45
Penalties
7
4
Penalty Yards
49
30
Penalty EPA
-8.15
-2.84
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+88
Home nfelo
1,583
Away nfelo
1,551
Home Field
+63.0
Base HFA
+53.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+18.8
Time Adj
-9.7
Net QB Adjustment
-6.2
Home QB Adjustment
-4.9
Away QB Adjustment
+1.3
Market Regression
+23.4
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
C. Wentz
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+1.3
K. Cousins
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-4.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Eagles Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
6
Yards / Game
13
13
Passing Yards / Game
8
24
Rushing Yards / Game
11
17
EPA
EPA / Play
12
5
EPA / Pass
17
6
EPA / Rush
15
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
23
Interceptions / Game
5
3
Fumbles / Game
28
3
Turnover EPA / Game
19
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
19
4th Down Efficiency
30
22
RZ Efficiency
8
2
Vikings Offense vs Eagles Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
15
Yards / Game
19
10
Passing Yards / Game
32
28
Rushing Yards / Game
8
3
EPA
EPA / Play
10
14
EPA / Pass
9
20
EPA / Rush
12
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
16
Interceptions / Game
7
24
Fumbles / Game
25
9
Turnover EPA / Game
21
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
5
4th Down Efficiency
16
27
RZ Efficiency
10
14
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Eagles
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U
Vikings
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
2-8
O/U