ATLFalcons
3-2
10
TBD
Levi's Stadium
74°F
5 mph
20
SF49ers
4-2
TBD
Levi's Stadium
74°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
0
3
7
0
10
49ers
0
10
3
7
20
Spread
+1
Total
UNDER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
292
324
Total Plays
60
66
Yards / Play
4.9
4.9
EPA / Play
-0.10
+0.05
Passing Yards
230
150
Comp/Att
21/38(55%)
17/26(65%)
Yards / Pass
6.1
5.8
EPA / Pass
-0.18
+0.08
Rushing Yards
62
174
Rush Attempts
20
39
Yards / Rush
3.1
4.5
EPA / Rush
-0.01
-0.04
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
23
Passing 1st downs
13
10
Rushing 1st downs
3
12
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
45%
60%
3rd Down Conversions
5
9
3rd Down Attempts
11
15
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-4.72
-5.53
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-11
-2
Sack EPA
-6.25
-1.34
Penalties
6
3
Penalty Yards
43
--
Penalty EPA
-6.27
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
+3.0
Current
-1.0
Model
+1.5
Win Probability
Market52.3%
Model47.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+52
Home nfelo
1,523
Away nfelo
1,510
Home Field
+77.0
Base HFA
+40.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.3
Time Adj
+21.9
Net QB Adjustment
-37.8
Home QB Adjustment
-44.1
Away QB Adjustment
-6.2
Market Regression
-45.7
Final Difference
19.7
Model Spread
-1.5
Quarterbacks
M. Penix
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-6.2
M. Jones
Proj. Value
-0.0
Team Elo Adj
-44.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Falcons Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
15
Yards / Game
16
25
Passing Yards / Game
22
6
Rushing Yards / Game
13
12
EPA
EPA / Play
27
24
EPA / Pass
23
25
EPA / Rush
16
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
25
Interceptions / Game
3
30
Fumbles / Game
29
9
Turnover EPA / Game
23
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
22
4th Down Efficiency
28
23
RZ Efficiency
12
17
49ers Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
19
Yards / Game
10
17
Passing Yards / Game
4
18
Rushing Yards / Game
27
27
EPA
EPA / Play
8
22
EPA / Pass
10
16
EPA / Rush
26
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
29
Interceptions / Game
27
11
Fumbles / Game
16
25
Turnover EPA / Game
10
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
16
4th Down Efficiency
17
21
RZ Efficiency
11
20
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Falcons
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
49ers
4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
7-3
O/U