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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. falcons @ 49ers week 9, 2015

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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ATL logo
ATLFalcons
6-2
16
TBD
Levi's Stadium
58°F
0
17
SF49ers
2-6
SF logo
TBD
Levi's Stadium
58°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
3
10
0
3
16
49ers
0
17
0
0
17

Spread

SF logo
+9

Total

UNDER
43.5

Game Statistics

General
Falcons logo
49ers logo
Total Yards
302
318
Total Plays
61
64
Yards / Play
5.0
5.0
EPA / Play
+0.01
+0.00
Passing Yards
285
--
Comp/Att
30/45(67%)
15/26(58%)
Yards / Pass
6.3
--
EPA / Pass
-0.01
+0.13
Rushing Yards
17
133
Rush Attempts
14
38
Yards / Rush
1.2
3.5
EPA / Rush
-0.32
-0.07
Downs & Conversions
Falcons logo
49ers logo
1st Downs
17
18
Passing 1st downs
15
8
Rushing 1st downs
2
8
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
33%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
5
6
3rd Down Attempts
15
14
Red Zone %
33%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Falcons logo
49ers logo
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-5.61
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-18
--
Sack EPA
-4.77
--
Penalties
6
5
Penalty Yards
63
30
Penalty EPA
-2.39
-3.50

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
ATL logo
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-9.0
Model
-7.0

Win Probability

Market78.3%
Model72.6%
Spread Pick
SF logo
49ers+9.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+16.9%
Cover Probability
59.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-126
Home nfelo
1,392
Away nfelo
1,489
Home Field
+95.1
Base HFA
+62.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.7
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-123.9
Home QB Adjustment
-119.8
Away QB Adjustment
+4.1
Market Regression
-60.5
Final Difference
-169.6
Model Spread
+7.0

Quarterbacks

M. Ryan headshot

M. Ryan

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+4.1
Value
Ptile
12/21
6.8
88
12/28
-8.4
7
09/14
1.0
57
09/20
3.6
76
09/27
5.4
84
10/04
1.5
62
10/11
-6.5
9
10/15
0.4
53
10/25
-2.4
33
11/01
8.1
94
B. Gabbert headshot

B. Gabbert

Proj. Value
-3.9
Team Elo Adj
-119.8
Value
Ptile
09/30
-5.1
17
10/07
-8.9
4
10/21
-2.0
36
10/28
0.8
55
11/04
-0.2
48
11/08
-5.3
16
11/18
-4.1
24
09/08
-14.5
0
09/29
-11.1
2
10/06
-6.8
11

Team Matchup Ranks

Falcons Offense vs 49ers Defense
Falcons logo
49ers logo

Total

Points / Game
21
17
Yards / Game
5
29
Passing Yards / Game
4
1
Rushing Yards / Game
19
29

EPA

EPA / Play
16
27
EPA / Pass
8
29
EPA / Rush
29
25

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
1
2
Interceptions / Game
24
26
Fumbles / Game
29
30
Turnover EPA / Game
7
2

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
2
18
4th Down Efficiency
14
20
RZ Efficiency
17
21
49ers Offense vs Falcons Defense
49ers logo
Falcons logo

Total

Points / Game
32
14
Yards / Game
31
15
Passing Yards / Game
23
3
Rushing Yards / Game
21
14

EPA

EPA / Play
30
15
EPA / Pass
29
17
EPA / Rush
9
19

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
4
24
Interceptions / Game
11
10
Fumbles / Game
1
23
Turnover EPA / Game
28
22

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
31
27
4th Down Efficiency
21
5
RZ Efficiency
31
26

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

ATL logo

Falcons

7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
2-7-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/21
16
W
W
U
12/28
-31
L
L
U
09/14
2
W
W
U
09/20
4
W
W
U
09/27
11
W
W
O
10/04
27
W
W
O
10/11
6
W
L
U
10/15
-10
L
L
P
10/25
3
W
L
U
11/01
-3
L
L
U
SF logo

49ers

3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/20
-3
L
L
O
12/28
3
W
L
U
09/14
17
W
W
U
09/20
-25
L
L
O
09/27
-40
L
L
O
10/04
-14
L
L
U
10/11
-3
L
W
O
10/18
5
W
W
O
10/22
-17
L
L
U
11/01
-21
L
L
U