ATLFalcons
6-2
16
TBD
Levi's Stadium
58°F
017
SF49ers
2-6
TBD
Levi's Stadium
58°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
3
10
0
3
16
49ers
0
17
0
0
17
Spread
+9
Total
UNDER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
302
318
Total Plays
61
64
Yards / Play
5.0
5.0
EPA / Play
+0.01
+0.00
Passing Yards
285
--
Comp/Att
30/45(67%)
15/26(58%)
Yards / Pass
6.3
--
EPA / Pass
-0.01
+0.13
Rushing Yards
17
133
Rush Attempts
14
38
Yards / Rush
1.2
3.5
EPA / Rush
-0.32
-0.07
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
18
Passing 1st downs
15
8
Rushing 1st downs
2
8
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
33%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
5
6
3rd Down Attempts
15
14
Red Zone %
33%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-5.61
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-18
--
Sack EPA
-4.77
--
Penalties
6
5
Penalty Yards
63
30
Penalty EPA
-2.39
-3.50
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-9.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market78.3%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
49ers+9.0
Expected Value
+16.9%
Cover Probability
59.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-128
Home nfelo
1,391
Away nfelo
1,490
Home Field
+94.4
Base HFA
+61.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.6
Time Adj
+11.1
Net QB Adjustment
-123.9
Home QB Adjustment
-119.8
Away QB Adjustment
+4.1
Market Regression
-61.9
Final Difference
-171.0
Model Spread
+7.0
Quarterbacks
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+4.1
B. Gabbert
Proj. Value
-3.9
Team Elo Adj
-119.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Falcons Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
17
Yards / Game
5
29
Passing Yards / Game
4
1
Rushing Yards / Game
19
29
EPA
EPA / Play
16
27
EPA / Pass
8
29
EPA / Rush
29
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
2
Interceptions / Game
24
26
Fumbles / Game
29
30
Turnover EPA / Game
7
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
18
4th Down Efficiency
14
20
RZ Efficiency
17
21
49ers Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
14
Yards / Game
31
15
Passing Yards / Game
23
3
Rushing Yards / Game
21
14
EPA
EPA / Play
30
15
EPA / Pass
29
17
EPA / Rush
9
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
24
Interceptions / Game
11
10
Fumbles / Game
1
23
Turnover EPA / Game
28
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
27
4th Down Efficiency
21
5
RZ Efficiency
31
26
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Falcons
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
2-7-1
O/U
49ers
3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U