ATLFalcons
6-7
13
TBD
Levi's Stadium
46°F
031
SF49ers
7-6
TBD
Levi's Stadium
46°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
3
7
3
0
13
49ers
3
14
14
0
31
Spread
-9
Total
UNDER
48
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
275
397
Total Plays
58
56
Yards / Play
4.7
7.1
EPA / Play
-0.15
+0.15
Passing Yards
213
--
Comp/Att
19/32(59%)
18/24(75%)
Yards / Pass
6.7
--
EPA / Pass
-0.22
+0.48
Rushing Yards
62
162
Rush Attempts
23
32
Yards / Rush
2.7
5.1
EPA / Rush
-0.29
+0.14
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
13
23
Passing 1st downs
8
11
Rushing 1st downs
3
11
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
38%
55%
3rd Down Conversions
5
6
3rd Down Attempts
13
11
Red Zone %
20%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
1
4
Red Zone Attempts
5
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-4.36
-6.47
Sacks
3
--
Sack Yards
-23
--
Sack EPA
-7.59
--
Penalties
4
5
Penalty Yards
29
35
Penalty EPA
-4.24
-5.02
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-8.0
Current
-9.0
Model
-9.0
Win Probability
Market77.7%
Model77.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+231
Home nfelo
1,590
Away nfelo
1,435
Home Field
+56.7
Base HFA
+37.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+12.9
Time Adj
+6.7
Net QB Adjustment
+19.4
Home QB Adjustment
+2.3
Away QB Adjustment
-17.1
Market Regression
+12.5
Final Difference
216.8
Model Spread
-9.0
Quarterbacks
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-17.1
J. Garoppolo
Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
+2.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Falcons Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
5
Yards / Game
29
4
Passing Yards / Game
23
19
Rushing Yards / Game
31
6
EPA
EPA / Play
26
13
EPA / Pass
23
13
EPA / Rush
32
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
24
Interceptions / Game
21
26
Fumbles / Game
28
15
Turnover EPA / Game
7
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
21
4th Down Efficiency
28
5
RZ Efficiency
24
13
49ers Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
29
Yards / Game
11
25
Passing Yards / Game
26
4
Rushing Yards / Game
7
27
EPA
EPA / Play
11
29
EPA / Pass
8
27
EPA / Rush
15
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
12
Interceptions / Game
20
20
Fumbles / Game
30
11
Turnover EPA / Game
19
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
30
4th Down Efficiency
24
11
RZ Efficiency
6
25
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Falcons
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
49ers
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
5-4-1
O/U