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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. falcons @ 49ers week 16, 2013

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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ATL logo
ATLFalcons
4-10
24
TBD
Candlestick Park
60°F
0
34
SF49ers
10-4
SF logo
TBD
Candlestick Park
60°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
0
10
0
14
24
49ers
3
0
10
15
28

Spread

ATL logo
+14

Total

OVER
46

Game Statistics

General
Falcons logo
49ers logo
Total Yards
402
379
Total Plays
69
54
Yards / Play
5.8
7.0
EPA / Play
+0.06
+0.24
Passing Yards
341
180
Comp/Att
37/48(77%)
13/21(62%)
Yards / Pass
7.1
8.6
EPA / Pass
+0.11
+0.27
Rushing Yards
61
199
Rush Attempts
20
30
Yards / Rush
3.0
6.6
EPA / Rush
-0.15
+0.28
Downs & Conversions
Falcons logo
49ers logo
1st Downs
24
20
Passing 1st downs
20
8
Rushing 1st downs
2
11
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
53%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
8
4
3rd Down Attempts
15
9
Red Zone %
50%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Falcons logo
49ers logo
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-13.28
--
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-7
-17
Sack EPA
-1.48
-6.96
Penalties
5
6
Penalty Yards
37
42
Penalty EPA
-4.82
-4.43

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
SF logo
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-12.0
Current
-14.0
Model
-14.5

Win Probability

Market87.3%
Model87.8%
Spread Pick
SF logo
49ers-14.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+3.9%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+373
Home nfelo
1,663
Away nfelo
1,417
Home Field
+117.8
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+33.5
Net QB Adjustment
+10.0
Home QB Adjustment
-9.1
Away QB Adjustment
-19.1
Market Regression
+11.4
Final Difference
342.7
Model Spread
-14.5

Quarterbacks

M. Ryan headshot

M. Ryan

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-19.1
Value
Ptile
10/07
9.1
94
10/20
6.1
87
10/27
-7.7
9
11/03
-3.0
32
11/10
1.2
59
11/17
-5.4
18
11/21
1.3
60
12/01
-0.1
49
12/08
-0.9
45
12/15
-1.4
43
C. Kaepernick headshot

C. Kaepernick

Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
-9.1
Value
Ptile
10/06
-2.0
39
10/13
1.0
57
10/20
3.9
77
10/27
6.9
90
11/10
-11.4
2
11/17
-2.9
33
11/25
3.0
71
12/01
1.1
58
12/08
-2.1
38
12/15
3.9
78

Team Matchup Ranks

Falcons Offense vs 49ers Defense
Falcons logo
49ers logo

Total

Points / Game
20
3
Yards / Game
16
5
Passing Yards / Game
9
15
Rushing Yards / Game
32
4

EPA

EPA / Play
17
4
EPA / Pass
18
7
EPA / Rush
23
8

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
3
22
Interceptions / Game
19
13
Fumbles / Game
17
26
Turnover EPA / Game
19
20

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
5
10
4th Down Efficiency
21
13
RZ Efficiency
19
6
49ers Offense vs Falcons Defense
49ers logo
Falcons logo

Total

Points / Game
13
27
Yards / Game
24
26
Passing Yards / Game
26
11
Rushing Yards / Game
3
31

EPA

EPA / Play
11
32
EPA / Pass
7
30
EPA / Rush
17
29

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
24
11
Interceptions / Game
4
29
Fumbles / Game
26
5
Turnover EPA / Game
31
8

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
18
32
4th Down Efficiency
5
27
RZ Efficiency
16
20

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

ATL logo

Falcons

3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/07
-2
L
L
O
10/20
8
W
W
O
10/27
-14
L
L
U
11/03
-24
L
L
U
11/10
-23
L
L
U
11/17
-13
L
L
O
11/21
-4
L
W
U
12/01
3
W
W
O
12/08
-1
L
W
U
12/15
1
W
L
O
SF logo

49ers

8-2
SU
8-2
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/06
31
W
W
U
10/13
12
W
W
O
10/20
14
W
W
O
10/27
32
W
W
O
11/10
-1
L
L
U
11/17
-3
L
W
U
11/25
21
W
W
U
12/01
10
W
W
U
12/08
2
W
L
U
12/15
19
W
W
O