ATLFalcons
4-10
24
TBD
Candlestick Park
60°F
034
SF49ers
10-4
TBD
Candlestick Park
60°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
0
10
0
14
24
49ers
3
0
10
15
28
Spread
+14
Total
OVER
46
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
402
379
Total Plays
69
54
Yards / Play
5.8
7.0
EPA / Play
+0.06
+0.24
Passing Yards
341
180
Comp/Att
37/48(77%)
13/21(62%)
Yards / Pass
7.1
8.6
EPA / Pass
+0.11
+0.27
Rushing Yards
61
199
Rush Attempts
20
30
Yards / Rush
3.0
6.6
EPA / Rush
-0.15
+0.28
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
20
Passing 1st downs
20
8
Rushing 1st downs
2
11
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
53%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
8
4
3rd Down Attempts
15
9
Red Zone %
50%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-13.28
--
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-7
-17
Sack EPA
-1.48
-6.96
Penalties
5
6
Penalty Yards
37
42
Penalty EPA
-4.82
-4.43
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-12.0
Current
-14.0
Model
-14.5
Win Probability
Market87.3%
Model87.8%
Spread Pick
49ers-14.0
Expected Value
+3.9%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+373
Home nfelo
1,665
Away nfelo
1,420
Home Field
+117.8
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+33.5
Net QB Adjustment
+10.0
Home QB Adjustment
-9.1
Away QB Adjustment
-19.1
Market Regression
+11.4
Final Difference
342.7
Model Spread
-14.5
Quarterbacks
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-19.1
C. Kaepernick
Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
-9.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Falcons Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
3
Yards / Game
16
5
Passing Yards / Game
9
15
Rushing Yards / Game
32
4
EPA
EPA / Play
17
4
EPA / Pass
18
7
EPA / Rush
23
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
22
Interceptions / Game
19
13
Fumbles / Game
17
26
Turnover EPA / Game
19
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
10
4th Down Efficiency
21
13
RZ Efficiency
19
6
49ers Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
27
Yards / Game
24
26
Passing Yards / Game
26
11
Rushing Yards / Game
3
31
EPA
EPA / Play
11
32
EPA / Pass
7
30
EPA / Rush
17
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
11
Interceptions / Game
4
29
Fumbles / Game
26
5
Turnover EPA / Game
31
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
32
4th Down Efficiency
5
27
RZ Efficiency
16
20
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Falcons
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
49ers
8-2
SU
8-2
ATS
4-6
O/U