ATLFalcons
-
23
TBD
Soldier Field
64°F
10 mph
17
CHIBears
-
TBD
Soldier Field
64°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
3
7
3
10
23
Bears
0
10
0
7
17
Spread
+7
Total
UNDER
48
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
372
301
Total Plays
55
63
Yards / Play
6.8
4.8
EPA / Play
+0.25
+0.05
Passing Yards
308
176
Comp/Att
21/30(70%)
26/40(65%)
Yards / Pass
10.3
4.4
EPA / Pass
+0.45
-0.17
Rushing Yards
64
125
Rush Attempts
23
19
Yards / Rush
2.8
6.6
EPA / Rush
-0.04
+0.41
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
20
Passing 1st downs
12
11
Rushing 1st downs
4
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
45%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
11
13
Red Zone %
33%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
2
4
Sack Yards
-13
-37
Sack EPA
-3.02
-8.82
Penalties
8
4
Penalty Yards
73
40
Penalty EPA
-7.87
-5.44
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market73.2%
Model69.8%
Spread Pick
Bears+7.0
Expected Value
+6.2%
Cover Probability
51.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-113
Home nfelo
1,446
Away nfelo
1,585
Home Field
+67.1
Base HFA
+57.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.0
Time Adj
-10.3
Net QB Adjustment
-40.4
Home QB Adjustment
-21.2
Away QB Adjustment
+19.2
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-145.2
Model Spread
+6.0
Quarterbacks
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+19.2
M. Glennon
Proj. Value
-4.4
Team Elo Adj
-21.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Falcons Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
8
Yards / Game
11
7
Passing Yards / Game
10
21
Rushing Yards / Game
14
10
EPA
EPA / Play
7
11
EPA / Pass
7
13
EPA / Rush
20
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
16
Interceptions / Game
8
29
Fumbles / Game
13
1
Turnover EPA / Game
27
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
20
4th Down Efficiency
24
22
RZ Efficiency
26
10
Bears Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
6
Yards / Game
30
8
Passing Yards / Game
24
20
Rushing Yards / Game
16
9
EPA
EPA / Play
27
21
EPA / Pass
28
18
EPA / Rush
17
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
26
Interceptions / Game
13
30
Fumbles / Game
25
18
Turnover EPA / Game
15
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
17
4th Down Efficiency
23
29
RZ Efficiency
5
2
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Falcons
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
9-1
O/U
Bears
2-8
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U