ATLFalcons
1-0
10
TBD
Paycor Stadium
66°F
4 mph
24
CINBengals
1-0
TBD
Paycor Stadium
66°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
3
0
0
7
10
Bengals
3
7
14
0
24
Spread
-5.5
Total
UNDER
48.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
309
472
Total Plays
65
69
Yards / Play
4.8
6.8
EPA / Play
-0.14
+0.06
Passing Yards
212
--
Comp/Att
24/44(55%)
16/24(67%)
Yards / Pass
4.8
--
EPA / Pass
-0.35
+0.54
Rushing Yards
97
170
Rush Attempts
19
45
Yards / Rush
5.1
3.8
EPA / Rush
+0.20
-0.03
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
21
Passing 1st downs
11
10
Rushing 1st downs
6
10
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
25%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
3
6
3rd Down Attempts
12
14
Red Zone %
100%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
3
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-11.48
--
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-19
--
Sack EPA
-3.24
--
Penalties
7
7
Penalty Yards
56
55
Penalty EPA
-5.06
-5.37
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-5.5
Model
-5.5
Win Probability
Market68.0%
Model68.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+122
Home nfelo
1,546
Away nfelo
1,483
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-3.2
Home QB Adjustment
+11.8
Away QB Adjustment
+14.9
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
130.9
Model Spread
-5.5
Quarterbacks
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+14.9
A. Dalton
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
+11.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Falcons Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
13
Yards / Game
7
23
Passing Yards / Game
2
4
Rushing Yards / Game
24
20
EPA
EPA / Play
11
15
EPA / Pass
11
13
EPA / Rush
22
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
30
Interceptions / Game
17
6
Fumbles / Game
15
28
Turnover EPA / Game
14
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
7
4th Down Efficiency
14
22
RZ Efficiency
6
7
Bengals Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
27
Yards / Game
18
32
Passing Yards / Game
31
8
Rushing Yards / Game
6
21
EPA
EPA / Play
15
28
EPA / Pass
23
29
EPA / Rush
3
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
20
Interceptions / Game
19
13
Fumbles / Game
18
16
Turnover EPA / Game
10
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
32
4th Down Efficiency
10
19
RZ Efficiency
10
21
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Falcons
3-7
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Bengals
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
5-4-1
O/U