ATLFalcons
7-8
15
TBD
New Era Field
26°F
11 mph
29
BUFBills
9-6
TBD
New Era Field
26°F
11 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
2
13
0
0
15
Bills
14
0
8
7
29
Spread
+14.5
Total
UNDER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
265
353
Total Plays
50
72
Yards / Play
5.3
4.9
EPA / Play
-0.14
+0.12
Passing Yards
169
120
Comp/Att
13/23(57%)
11/27(41%)
Yards / Pass
7.3
4.4
EPA / Pass
-0.42
-0.28
Rushing Yards
96
233
Rush Attempts
22
44
Yards / Rush
4.4
5.3
EPA / Rush
-0.05
+0.31
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
28
Passing 1st downs
9
8
Rushing 1st downs
7
19
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
14%
58%
3rd Down Conversions
1
7
3rd Down Attempts
7
12
Red Zone %
25%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
1
4
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
0
3
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-5.29
-12.19
Sacks
5
1
Sack Yards
-28
-2
Sack EPA
-10.43
-0.84
Penalties
4
7
Penalty Yards
27
47
Penalty EPA
-7.69
-6.36
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-13.5
Current
-14.5
Model
-14.5
Win Probability
Market87.9%
Model87.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+355
Home nfelo
1,693
Away nfelo
1,405
Home Field
+36.2
Base HFA
+36.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+31.2
Home QB Adjustment
+12.6
Away QB Adjustment
-18.6
Market Regression
+26.2
Final Difference
344.5
Model Spread
-14.5
Quarterbacks
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-18.6
J. Allen
Proj. Value
+5.1
Team Elo Adj
+12.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Falcons Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
1
Yards / Game
29
1
Passing Yards / Game
23
5
Rushing Yards / Game
31
16
EPA
EPA / Play
26
3
EPA / Pass
23
2
EPA / Rush
32
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
32
Interceptions / Game
21
4
Fumbles / Game
28
10
Turnover EPA / Game
7
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
1
4th Down Efficiency
28
15
RZ Efficiency
24
10
Bills Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
29
Yards / Game
5
25
Passing Yards / Game
30
4
Rushing Yards / Game
6
27
EPA
EPA / Play
2
29
EPA / Pass
5
27
EPA / Rush
1
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
12
Interceptions / Game
19
20
Fumbles / Game
10
11
Turnover EPA / Game
26
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
30
4th Down Efficiency
12
11
RZ Efficiency
2
25
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Falcons
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U
Bills
5-5
SU
4-5-1
ATS
6-4
O/U