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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. falcons @ bills week 17, 2021

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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ATL logo
ATLFalcons
7-8
15
TBD
New Era Field
26°F
11 mph
29
BUFBills
9-6
BUF logo
TBD
New Era Field
26°F
11 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
2
13
0
0
15
Bills
14
0
8
7
29

Spread

ATL logo
+14.5

Total

UNDER
46.5

Game Statistics

General
Falcons logo
Bills logo
Total Yards
265
353
Total Plays
50
72
Yards / Play
5.3
4.9
EPA / Play
-0.14
+0.12
Passing Yards
169
120
Comp/Att
13/23(57%)
11/27(41%)
Yards / Pass
7.3
4.4
EPA / Pass
-0.42
-0.28
Rushing Yards
96
233
Rush Attempts
22
44
Yards / Rush
4.4
5.3
EPA / Rush
-0.05
+0.31
Downs & Conversions
Falcons logo
Bills logo
1st Downs
18
28
Passing 1st downs
9
8
Rushing 1st downs
7
19
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
14%
58%
3rd Down Conversions
1
7
3rd Down Attempts
7
12
Red Zone %
25%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
1
4
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Falcons logo
Bills logo
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
0
3
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-5.29
-12.19
Sacks
5
1
Sack Yards
-28
-2
Sack EPA
-10.43
-0.84
Penalties
4
7
Penalty Yards
27
47
Penalty EPA
-7.69
-6.36

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
BUF logo
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-13.5
Current
-14.5
Model
-14.5

Win Probability

Market87.9%
Model87.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+361
Home nfelo
1,696
Away nfelo
1,403
Home Field
+36.2
Base HFA
+36.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+31.2
Home QB Adjustment
+12.6
Away QB Adjustment
-18.6
Market Regression
+17.6
Final Difference
344.5
Model Spread
-14.5

Quarterbacks

M. Ryan headshot

M. Ryan

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-18.6
Value
Ptile
10/24
1.3
62
10/31
-7.0
11
11/07
8.6
94
11/14
-11.7
2
11/18
-7.9
9
11/28
-4.2
24
12/05
-1.8
40
12/12
0.8
59
12/19
-1.9
39
12/26
-2.7
34
J. Allen headshot

J. Allen

Proj. Value
+3.3
Team Elo Adj
+12.6
Value
Ptile
10/18
4.9
83
10/31
8.9
95
11/07
-5.3
17
11/14
2.3
70
11/21
-2.4
35
11/25
5.8
87
12/06
-0.5
49
12/12
10.2
97
12/19
-1.8
40
12/26
12.9
98

Team Matchup Ranks

Falcons Offense vs Bills Defense
Falcons logo
Bills logo

Total

Points / Game
26
1
Yards / Game
29
1
Passing Yards / Game
23
5
Rushing Yards / Game
31
16

EPA

EPA / Play
26
3
EPA / Pass
23
2
EPA / Rush
32
12

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
1
32
Interceptions / Game
21
4
Fumbles / Game
28
10
Turnover EPA / Game
7
23

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
19
1
4th Down Efficiency
28
15
RZ Efficiency
24
10
Bills Offense vs Falcons Defense
Bills logo
Falcons logo

Total

Points / Game
3
29
Yards / Game
5
25
Passing Yards / Game
30
4
Rushing Yards / Game
6
27

EPA

EPA / Play
2
29
EPA / Pass
5
27
EPA / Rush
1
23

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
21
12
Interceptions / Game
19
20
Fumbles / Game
10
11
Turnover EPA / Game
26
20

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
2
30
4th Down Efficiency
12
11
RZ Efficiency
2
25

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

ATL logo

Falcons

5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/24
2
W
W
O
10/31
-6
L
L
U
11/07
2
W
W
O
11/14
-40
L
L
U
11/18
-25
L
L
U
11/28
7
W
W
U
12/05
-13
L
L
U
12/12
8
W
W
O
12/19
-18
L
L
U
12/26
4
W
L
U
BUF logo

Bills

5-5
SU
4-5-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/18
-3
L
L
O
10/31
15
W
P
U
11/07
-3
L
L
U
11/14
28
W
W
O
11/21
-26
L
L
O
11/25
25
W
W
U
12/06
-4
L
L
U
12/12
-6
L
L
O
12/19
17
W
W
O
12/26
12
W
W
O