ATLFalcons
6-4
6
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
55°F
9 mph
38
DENBroncos
5-5
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
55°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
3
3
0
0
6
Broncos
7
14
7
10
38
Spread
-2
Total
UNDER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
226
400
Total Plays
56
60
Yards / Play
4.0
6.7
EPA / Play
-0.23
+0.37
Passing Yards
176
295
Comp/Att
20/31(65%)
28/33(85%)
Yards / Pass
5.7
8.9
EPA / Pass
-0.18
+0.69
Rushing Yards
50
105
Rush Attempts
21
26
Yards / Rush
2.4
4.0
EPA / Rush
-0.46
-0.00
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
13
22
Passing 1st downs
10
14
Rushing 1st downs
2
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
31%
55%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
13
11
Red Zone %
0%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
--
4
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-5.77
--
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-21
-12
Sack EPA
-5.77
-2.25
Penalties
6
4
Penalty Yards
52
45
Penalty EPA
-5.06
-5.01
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-2.0
Model
-2.0
Win Probability
Market54.2%
Model54.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+23
Home nfelo
1,495
Away nfelo
1,539
Home Field
+70.8
Base HFA
+41.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.5
Time Adj
+14.8
Net QB Adjustment
-3.4
Home QB Adjustment
+10.1
Away QB Adjustment
+13.5
Market Regression
-13.3
Final Difference
29.3
Model Spread
-2.0
Quarterbacks
K. Cousins
Proj. Value
-1.4
Team Elo Adj
+13.5
B. Nix
Proj. Value
+1.0
Team Elo Adj
+10.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Falcons Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
3
Yards / Game
6
10
Passing Yards / Game
7
30
Rushing Yards / Game
10
5
EPA
EPA / Play
15
3
EPA / Pass
15
2
EPA / Rush
11
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
29
Interceptions / Game
29
11
Fumbles / Game
6
13
Turnover EPA / Game
8
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
13
4th Down Efficiency
5
15
RZ Efficiency
20
1
Broncos Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
23
Yards / Game
22
22
Passing Yards / Game
27
3
Rushing Yards / Game
17
15
EPA
EPA / Play
12
23
EPA / Pass
16
28
EPA / Rush
15
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
25
Interceptions / Game
15
16
Fumbles / Game
12
27
Turnover EPA / Game
25
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
31
4th Down Efficiency
9
13
RZ Efficiency
8
28
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Falcons
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Broncos
5-5
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U