ATLFalcons
0-1
25
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
85°F
048
TBBuccaneers
1-0
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
85°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
0
10
15
0
25
Buccaneers
7
14
7
8
36
Spread
-13
Total
OVER
52
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
350
341
Total Plays
70
60
Yards / Play
5.0
5.7
EPA / Play
-0.32
+0.03
Passing Yards
293
259
Comp/Att
35/48(73%)
24/36(67%)
Yards / Pass
6.1
7.2
EPA / Pass
-0.19
+0.05
Rushing Yards
57
82
Rush Attempts
21
21
Yards / Rush
2.7
3.9
EPA / Rush
-0.47
-0.03
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
21
Passing 1st downs
15
14
Rushing 1st downs
2
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
40%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
6
4
3rd Down Attempts
15
12
Red Zone %
75%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
3
4
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
3
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-21.62
-4.29
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-7
-17
Sack EPA
-1.72
-7.14
Penalties
6
9
Penalty Yards
49
83
Penalty EPA
-5.72
+1.78
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
-13.0
Current
-13.0
Model
-13.0
Win Probability
Market84.9%
Model84.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+248
Home nfelo
1,644
Away nfelo
1,456
Home Field
+39.5
Base HFA
+44.0
Divisional Adj
-19.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.4
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+20.4
Home QB Adjustment
+13.3
Away QB Adjustment
-7.1
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
297.3
Model Spread
-13.0
Quarterbacks
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-7.1
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+13.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Falcons Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
7
Yards / Game
29
15
Passing Yards / Game
23
31
Rushing Yards / Game
31
3
EPA
EPA / Play
26
4
EPA / Pass
23
4
EPA / Rush
32
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
31
Interceptions / Game
21
8
Fumbles / Game
28
4
Turnover EPA / Game
7
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
10
4th Down Efficiency
28
8
RZ Efficiency
24
6
Buccaneers Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
29
Yards / Game
3
25
Passing Yards / Game
9
4
Rushing Yards / Game
26
27
EPA
EPA / Play
4
29
EPA / Pass
6
27
EPA / Rush
11
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
12
Interceptions / Game
9
20
Fumbles / Game
19
11
Turnover EPA / Game
29
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
30
4th Down Efficiency
17
11
RZ Efficiency
1
25
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Falcons
3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Buccaneers
9-1
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U