ATLFalcons
5-3
43
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
76°F
2 mph
28
TBBuccaneers
3-4
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
76°F
2 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
10
10
13
10
43
Buccaneers
7
7
0
14
28
Spread
-4.5
Total
OVER
49
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
461
398
Total Plays
71
72
Yards / Play
6.5
5.5
EPA / Play
+0.36
+0.06
Passing Yards
325
328
Comp/Att
25/35(71%)
33/49(67%)
Yards / Pass
9.3
6.7
EPA / Pass
+0.54
+0.42
Rushing Yards
136
70
Rush Attempts
34
21
Yards / Rush
4.0
3.3
EPA / Rush
-0.01
-0.60
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
31
23
Passing 1st downs
20
18
Rushing 1st downs
9
3
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
60%
57%
3rd Down Conversions
6
8
3rd Down Attempts
10
14
Red Zone %
80%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
4
4
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
2
Turnover EPA
-5.21
-9.59
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-19
-10
Sack EPA
-5.97
-2.70
Penalties
6
11
Penalty Yards
34
85
Penalty EPA
-4.52
-11.65
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-4.5
Model
-4.5
Win Probability
Market66.6%
Model66.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-90
Home nfelo
1,433
Away nfelo
1,549
Home Field
+51.4
Base HFA
+57.2
Divisional Adj
-25.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.9
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-24.9
Home QB Adjustment
-2.2
Away QB Adjustment
+22.7
Market Regression
-51.6
Final Difference
-119.9
Model Spread
+4.5
Quarterbacks
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+22.7
J. Winston
Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
-2.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Falcons Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
15
Yards / Game
2
22
Passing Yards / Game
2
20
Rushing Yards / Game
5
22
EPA
EPA / Play
1
12
EPA / Pass
1
10
EPA / Rush
4
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
16
Interceptions / Game
3
4
Fumbles / Game
4
12
Turnover EPA / Game
32
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
1
4th Down Efficiency
9
31
RZ Efficiency
9
24
Buccaneers Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
27
Yards / Game
18
27
Passing Yards / Game
13
31
Rushing Yards / Game
25
17
EPA
EPA / Play
18
24
EPA / Pass
9
22
EPA / Rush
28
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
11
Interceptions / Game
27
17
Fumbles / Game
25
15
Turnover EPA / Game
12
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
25
4th Down Efficiency
22
29
RZ Efficiency
21
32
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Falcons
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Buccaneers
3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
7-3
O/U