ATLFalcons
2-7
28
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
79°F
6 mph
41
TBBuccaneers
1-8
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
79°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
0
6
7
15
28
Buccaneers
3
15
14
3
35
Spread
-2
Total
OVER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
422
410
Total Plays
67
65
Yards / Play
6.3
6.3
EPA / Play
+0.01
+0.21
Passing Yards
270
224
Comp/Att
24/44(55%)
20/25(80%)
Yards / Pass
6.1
9.0
EPA / Pass
-0.24
+0.26
Rushing Yards
152
186
Rush Attempts
20
38
Yards / Rush
7.6
4.9
EPA / Rush
+0.52
+0.12
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
24
Passing 1st downs
10
11
Rushing 1st downs
7
10
Penalty 1st downs
7
3
3rd Down %
14%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
1
3
3rd Down Attempts
7
11
Red Zone %
50%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-14.74
--
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-20
-7
Sack EPA
-4.30
-2.97
Penalties
7
11
Penalty Yards
45
121
Penalty EPA
-4.81
-13.86
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-2.0
Model
-2.0
Win Probability
Market54.2%
Model54.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+16
Home nfelo
1,387
Away nfelo
1,428
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+1.0
Home QB Adjustment
-1.4
Away QB Adjustment
-2.4
Market Regression
+29.3
Final Difference
29.3
Model Spread
-2.0
Quarterbacks
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-2.4
M. Glennon
Proj. Value
-4.4
Team Elo Adj
-1.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Falcons Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
21
Yards / Game
16
17
Passing Yards / Game
9
12
Rushing Yards / Game
32
15
EPA
EPA / Play
17
18
EPA / Pass
18
18
EPA / Rush
23
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
6
Interceptions / Game
19
4
Fumbles / Game
17
20
Turnover EPA / Game
19
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
18
4th Down Efficiency
21
23
RZ Efficiency
19
9
Buccaneers Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
27
Yards / Game
32
26
Passing Yards / Game
27
11
Rushing Yards / Game
22
31
EPA
EPA / Play
27
32
EPA / Pass
26
30
EPA / Rush
24
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
10
11
Interceptions / Game
9
29
Fumbles / Game
17
5
Turnover EPA / Game
26
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
32
4th Down Efficiency
24
27
RZ Efficiency
22
20
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Falcons
2-8
SU
2-8
ATS
6-4
O/U
Buccaneers
2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U