ATLFalcons
9-1
24
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
65°F
7 mph
23
TBBuccaneers
6-4
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
65°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
3
7
7
7
24
Buccaneers
7
3
3
10
23
Spread
1
P
Total
UNDER
50.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
424
326
Total Plays
57
54
Yards / Play
7.4
6.0
EPA / Play
+0.18
+0.12
Passing Yards
345
276
Comp/Att
26/32(81%)
20/31(65%)
Yards / Pass
10.8
8.9
EPA / Pass
+0.41
+0.39
Rushing Yards
79
50
Rush Attempts
24
21
Yards / Rush
3.3
2.4
EPA / Rush
+0.00
-0.17
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
16
Passing 1st downs
13
12
Rushing 1st downs
6
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
62%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
8
4
3rd Down Attempts
13
10
Red Zone %
50%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-9.95
--
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-8
-8
Sack EPA
-4.94
-2.15
Penalties
2
5
Penalty Yards
--
24
Penalty EPA
--
-4.46
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-1.0
Model
-1.0
Win Probability
Market52.3%
Model52.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-3
Home nfelo
1,506
Away nfelo
1,572
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+7.0
Home QB Adjustment
+13.1
Away QB Adjustment
+6.1
Market Regression
-16.0
Final Difference
-16.0
Model Spread
+1.0
Quarterbacks
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+6.1
J. Freeman
Proj. Value
-3.2
Team Elo Adj
+13.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Falcons Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
23
Yards / Game
6
29
Passing Yards / Game
2
17
Rushing Yards / Game
27
1
EPA
EPA / Play
9
18
EPA / Pass
3
25
EPA / Rush
30
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
26
Interceptions / Game
17
9
Fumbles / Game
2
26
Turnover EPA / Game
23
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
25
4th Down Efficiency
32
9
RZ Efficiency
9
17
Buccaneers Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
6
Yards / Game
12
24
Passing Yards / Game
7
23
Rushing Yards / Game
16
19
EPA
EPA / Play
15
10
EPA / Pass
15
12
EPA / Rush
9
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
28
Interceptions / Game
22
6
Fumbles / Game
3
10
Turnover EPA / Game
21
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
26
4th Down Efficiency
23
9
RZ Efficiency
8
7
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Falcons
9-1
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Buccaneers
6-4
SU
8-2
ATS
8-2
O/U