ATLFalcons
6-9
28
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
78°F
12 mph
22
TBBuccaneers
7-8
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
78°F
12 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
10
6
0
6
22
Buccaneers
0
16
0
0
16
Spread
+1
Total
OVER
48
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
373
331
Total Plays
87
47
Yards / Play
4.3
7.0
EPA / Play
-0.10
-0.44
Passing Yards
286
193
Comp/Att
30/51(59%)
13/24(54%)
Yards / Pass
5.6
8.0
EPA / Pass
-0.12
-0.28
Rushing Yards
87
138
Rush Attempts
30
22
Yards / Rush
2.9
6.3
EPA / Rush
-0.29
-0.13
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
28
14
Passing 1st downs
20
8
Rushing 1st downs
6
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
39%
13%
3rd Down Conversions
7
1
3rd Down Attempts
18
8
Red Zone %
0%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-10.67
-18.48
Sacks
6
1
Sack Yards
-27
-8
Sack EPA
-16.63
-1.57
Penalties
5
12
Penalty Yards
53
97
Penalty EPA
-3.48
-11.23
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-1.0
Model
-1.0
Win Probability
Market52.2%
Model52.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+41
Home nfelo
1,498
Away nfelo
1,512
Home Field
+41.0
Base HFA
+45.6
Divisional Adj
-20.6
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.9
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+13.4
Home QB Adjustment
+0.4
Away QB Adjustment
-13.0
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
15.3
Model Spread
-1.0
Quarterbacks
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-13.0
J. Winston
Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
+0.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Falcons Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
29
Yards / Game
5
15
Passing Yards / Game
2
31
Rushing Yards / Game
30
1
EPA
EPA / Play
13
11
EPA / Pass
15
7
EPA / Rush
23
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
11
Interceptions / Game
21
18
Fumbles / Game
18
2
Turnover EPA / Game
10
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
4
4th Down Efficiency
4
19
RZ Efficiency
25
5
Buccaneers Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
22
Yards / Game
3
20
Passing Yards / Game
1
1
Rushing Yards / Game
24
15
EPA
EPA / Play
19
21
EPA / Pass
14
24
EPA / Rush
26
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
6
Interceptions / Game
32
18
Fumbles / Game
22
14
Turnover EPA / Game
1
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
21
4th Down Efficiency
11
26
RZ Efficiency
4
19
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Falcons
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Buccaneers
5-5
SU
3-5-2
ATS
8-2
O/U