ATLFalcons
4-11
27
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
65°F
4 mph
44
TBBuccaneers
10-5
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
65°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
3
7
10
7
27
Buccaneers
10
13
0
21
44
Spread
-7
Total
OVER
51
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
385
485
Total Plays
71
64
Yards / Play
5.4
7.6
EPA / Play
+0.10
+0.39
Passing Yards
258
391
Comp/Att
29/44(66%)
26/41(63%)
Yards / Pass
5.9
9.5
EPA / Pass
+0.19
+0.53
Rushing Yards
127
94
Rush Attempts
26
22
Yards / Rush
4.9
4.3
EPA / Rush
-0.15
-0.03
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
25
28
Passing 1st downs
17
20
Rushing 1st downs
6
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
50%
55%
3rd Down Conversions
7
6
3rd Down Attempts
14
11
Red Zone %
60%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-10.05
-3.65
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-7
-8
Sack EPA
-1.15
-1.92
Penalties
4
3
Penalty Yards
48
--
Penalty EPA
-3.42
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+212
Home nfelo
1,651
Away nfelo
1,474
Home Field
+5.6
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
-2.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+29.2
Home QB Adjustment
+22.3
Away QB Adjustment
-7.0
Market Regression
+2.3
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0
Quarterbacks
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-7.0
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+22.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Falcons Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
7
Yards / Game
15
8
Passing Yards / Game
1
21
Rushing Yards / Game
28
1
EPA
EPA / Play
14
6
EPA / Pass
11
6
EPA / Rush
27
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
30
Interceptions / Game
11
3
Fumbles / Game
12
10
Turnover EPA / Game
26
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
17
4th Down Efficiency
15
13
RZ Efficiency
26
11
Buccaneers Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
19
Yards / Game
9
29
Passing Yards / Game
12
30
Rushing Yards / Game
25
7
EPA
EPA / Play
5
19
EPA / Pass
5
26
EPA / Rush
21
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
11
Interceptions / Game
15
16
Fumbles / Game
4
13
Turnover EPA / Game
22
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
16
4th Down Efficiency
13
7
RZ Efficiency
11
27
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Falcons
4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U
Buccaneers
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U