ATLFalcons
2-0
27
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
82°F
13 mph
3
LACChargers
2-0
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
82°F
13 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
6
14
0
7
27
Chargers
0
0
3
0
3
Spread
+3
Total
UNDER
47
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
384
280
Total Plays
69
56
Yards / Play
5.6
5.0
EPA / Play
+0.24
-0.20
Passing Yards
265
164
Comp/Att
30/40(75%)
21/38(55%)
Yards / Pass
6.6
4.3
EPA / Pass
+0.40
-0.34
Rushing Yards
119
116
Rush Attempts
27
17
Yards / Rush
4.4
6.8
EPA / Rush
-0.03
+0.04
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
25
15
Passing 1st downs
18
9
Rushing 1st downs
5
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
62%
45%
3rd Down Conversions
8
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
11
Red Zone %
80%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
4
--
Red Zone Attempts
5
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
4
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
-4.30
-16.16
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-10
-9
Sack EPA
-3.63
-0.04
Penalties
2
4
Penalty Yards
--
17
Penalty EPA
--
-2.41
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+46
Home nfelo
1,550
Away nfelo
1,588
Home Field
+95.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-11.3
Home QB Adjustment
+10.3
Away QB Adjustment
+21.6
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+21.6
P. Rivers
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+10.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Falcons Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
15
Yards / Game
6
9
Passing Yards / Game
2
12
Rushing Yards / Game
27
5
EPA
EPA / Play
9
9
EPA / Pass
3
13
EPA / Rush
30
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
3
Interceptions / Game
17
18
Fumbles / Game
2
7
Turnover EPA / Game
23
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
29
4th Down Efficiency
32
8
RZ Efficiency
9
32
Chargers Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
6
Yards / Game
31
24
Passing Yards / Game
13
23
Rushing Yards / Game
28
19
EPA
EPA / Play
19
10
EPA / Pass
20
12
EPA / Rush
28
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
28
Interceptions / Game
14
6
Fumbles / Game
23
10
Turnover EPA / Game
18
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
26
4th Down Efficiency
14
9
RZ Efficiency
26
7
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Falcons
7-3
SU
5-3-2
ATS
5-5
O/U
Chargers
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U