ATLFalcons
4-8
17
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
020
LACChargers
3-9
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
7
10
0
0
17
Chargers
7
3
7
3
20
Spread
-1
Total
UNDER
49
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
319
345
Total Plays
55
71
Yards / Play
5.8
4.9
EPA / Play
+0.03
+0.04
Passing Yards
249
240
Comp/Att
22/33(67%)
36/44(82%)
Yards / Pass
7.5
5.5
EPA / Pass
+0.02
+0.12
Rushing Yards
70
105
Rush Attempts
20
26
Yards / Rush
3.5
4.0
EPA / Rush
-0.02
-0.06
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
23
Passing 1st downs
11
14
Rushing 1st downs
6
8
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
75%
60%
3rd Down Conversions
9
9
3rd Down Attempts
12
15
Red Zone %
33%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
3
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-11.59
-3.45
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-14
-3
Sack EPA
-3.04
-1.61
Penalties
4
6
Penalty Yards
35
40
Penalty EPA
-6.52
-2.98
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LACChargersFavored
Opening
+1.5
Current
-1.0
Model
-0.5
Win Probability
Market52.2%
Model51.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-21
Home nfelo
1,401
Away nfelo
1,453
Home Field
+8.5
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+2.3
Net QB Adjustment
+22.6
Home QB Adjustment
+7.3
Away QB Adjustment
-15.4
Market Regression
+32.9
Final Difference
7.9
Model Spread
-0.5
Quarterbacks
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-15.4
J. Herbert
Proj. Value
+1.0
Team Elo Adj
+7.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Falcons Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
23
Yards / Game
15
10
Passing Yards / Game
1
10
Rushing Yards / Game
28
17
EPA
EPA / Play
14
13
EPA / Pass
11
19
EPA / Rush
27
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
18
Interceptions / Game
11
16
Fumbles / Game
12
24
Turnover EPA / Game
26
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
22
4th Down Efficiency
15
26
RZ Efficiency
26
8
Chargers Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
19
Yards / Game
10
29
Passing Yards / Game
2
30
Rushing Yards / Game
18
7
EPA
EPA / Play
23
19
EPA / Pass
10
26
EPA / Rush
31
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
8
11
Interceptions / Game
7
16
Fumbles / Game
8
13
Turnover EPA / Game
30
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
16
4th Down Efficiency
25
7
RZ Efficiency
21
27
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Falcons
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U
Chargers
2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
7-3
O/U