ATLFalcons
1-1
24
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
027
INDColts
1-1
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
0
3
7
14
24
Colts
10
10
0
7
27
Spread
-1
Total
OVER
48
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
397
379
Total Plays
54
62
Yards / Play
7.4
6.1
EPA / Play
+0.33
+0.31
Passing Yards
--
300
Comp/Att
29/34(85%)
28/37(76%)
Yards / Pass
--
8.1
EPA / Pass
+0.63
+0.47
Rushing Yards
93
79
Rush Attempts
20
24
Yards / Rush
4.7
3.3
EPA / Rush
+0.01
-0.22
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
25
29
Passing 1st downs
17
15
Rushing 1st downs
6
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
7
3rd Down %
80%
63%
3rd Down Conversions
8
5
3rd Down Attempts
10
8
Red Zone %
75%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.31
--
Sacks
--
1
Sack Yards
--
-10
Sack EPA
--
-1.65
Penalties
16
4
Penalty Yards
128
39
Penalty EPA
-16.46
-5.83
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-1.0
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market52.2%
Model56.2%
Spread Pick
Colts-1.0
Expected Value
+5.0%
Cover Probability
54.5%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+89
Home nfelo
1,544
Away nfelo
1,488
Home Field
+57.0
Base HFA
+57.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-24.4
Home QB Adjustment
-19.4
Away QB Adjustment
+5.0
Market Regression
+0.7
Final Difference
43.3
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+5.0
J. Brissett
Proj. Value
-2.1
Team Elo Adj
-19.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Falcons Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
18
Yards / Game
5
16
Passing Yards / Game
2
18
Rushing Yards / Game
30
5
EPA
EPA / Play
13
17
EPA / Pass
15
21
EPA / Rush
23
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
24
Interceptions / Game
21
6
Fumbles / Game
18
20
Turnover EPA / Game
10
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
27
4th Down Efficiency
4
10
RZ Efficiency
25
9
Colts Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
22
Yards / Game
25
20
Passing Yards / Game
25
1
Rushing Yards / Game
5
15
EPA
EPA / Play
18
21
EPA / Pass
23
24
EPA / Rush
2
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
6
Interceptions / Game
12
18
Fumbles / Game
22
14
Turnover EPA / Game
12
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
21
4th Down Efficiency
6
26
RZ Efficiency
3
19
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Falcons
4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
3-7
O/U
Colts
7-3
SU
5-4-1
ATS
3-7
O/U