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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. falcons @ colts week 3, 2019

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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ATL logo
ATLFalcons
1-1
24
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0
27
INDColts
1-1
IND logo
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
0
3
7
14
24
Colts
10
10
0
7
27

Spread

IND logo
-1

Total

OVER
48

Game Statistics

General
Falcons logo
Colts logo
Total Yards
397
379
Total Plays
54
62
Yards / Play
7.4
6.1
EPA / Play
+0.33
+0.31
Passing Yards
--
300
Comp/Att
29/34(85%)
28/37(76%)
Yards / Pass
--
8.1
EPA / Pass
+0.63
+0.47
Rushing Yards
93
79
Rush Attempts
20
24
Yards / Rush
4.7
3.3
EPA / Rush
+0.01
-0.22
Downs & Conversions
Falcons logo
Colts logo
1st Downs
25
29
Passing 1st downs
17
15
Rushing 1st downs
6
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
7
3rd Down %
80%
63%
3rd Down Conversions
8
5
3rd Down Attempts
10
8
Red Zone %
75%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Falcons logo
Colts logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.31
--
Sacks
--
1
Sack Yards
--
-10
Sack EPA
--
-1.65
Penalties
16
4
Penalty Yards
128
39
Penalty EPA
-16.46
-5.83

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
IND logo
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-1.0
Model
-2.5

Win Probability

Market52.2%
Model56.3%
Spread Pick
IND logo
Colts-1.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+5.0%
Cover Probability
54.5%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+90
Home nfelo
1,546
Away nfelo
1,489
Home Field
+57.6
Base HFA
+57.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-24.4
Home QB Adjustment
-19.4
Away QB Adjustment
+5.0
Market Regression
+1.2
Final Difference
43.8
Model Spread
-2.5

Quarterbacks

M. Ryan headshot

M. Ryan

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+5.0
Value
Ptile
11/11
6.9
89
11/18
-1.0
39
11/22
2.7
68
12/02
-3.8
23
12/09
2.5
66
12/16
4.2
75
12/23
2.3
65
12/30
5.2
81
09/08
1.7
66
09/15
-0.7
48
J. Brissett headshot

J. Brissett

Proj. Value
-0.2
Team Elo Adj
-19.4
Value
Ptile
11/05
3.3
76
11/12
-1.5
42
11/26
-9.3
4
12/03
-4.3
23
12/10
-4.6
21
12/14
0.0
52
12/23
-1.6
41
12/31
-2.9
33
09/08
2.0
67
09/15
-1.7
41

Team Matchup Ranks

Falcons Offense vs Colts Defense
Falcons logo
Colts logo

Total

Points / Game
13
18
Yards / Game
5
16
Passing Yards / Game
2
18
Rushing Yards / Game
30
5

EPA

EPA / Play
13
17
EPA / Pass
15
21
EPA / Rush
23
8

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
2
24
Interceptions / Game
21
6
Fumbles / Game
18
20
Turnover EPA / Game
10
17

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
10
27
4th Down Efficiency
4
10
RZ Efficiency
25
9
Colts Offense vs Falcons Defense
Colts logo
Falcons logo

Total

Points / Game
16
22
Yards / Game
25
20
Passing Yards / Game
25
1
Rushing Yards / Game
5
15

EPA

EPA / Play
18
21
EPA / Pass
23
24
EPA / Rush
2
15

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
17
6
Interceptions / Game
12
18
Fumbles / Game
22
14
Turnover EPA / Game
12
8

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
12
21
4th Down Efficiency
6
26
RZ Efficiency
3
19

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

ATL logo

Falcons

4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/11
-12
L
L
U
11/18
-3
L
L
U
11/22
-14
L
L
U
12/02
-10
L
L
U
12/09
-14
L
L
O
12/16
26
W
W
O
12/23
14
W
W
U
12/30
2
W
L
O
09/08
-16
L
L
U
09/15
4
W
W
U
IND logo

Colts

7-3
SU
5-4-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/25
3
W
L
U
12/02
-6
L
L
U
12/09
3
W
W
U
12/16
23
W
W
U
12/23
1
W
L
O
12/30
16
W
W
O
01/05
14
W
W
U
01/12
-18
L
L
U
09/08
-6
L
P
O
09/15
2
W
W
U