
ATLFalcons
4-3
31
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
07
INDColts
0-8

TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
14
7
7
3
31
Colts
0
1
0
0
1
Spread

-7
Total
UNDER
45
Game Statistics
General


Total Yards
432
186
Total Plays
66
56
Yards / Play
6.5
3.3
EPA / Play
+0.14
-0.35
Passing Yards
269
103
Comp/Att
14/24(58%)
17/33(52%)
Yards / Pass
11.2
3.1
EPA / Pass
+0.40
-0.38
Rushing Yards
163
83
Rush Attempts
41
21
Yards / Rush
4.0
4.0
EPA / Rush
-0.00
-0.30
Downs & Conversions


1st Downs
21
10
Passing 1st downs
10
6
Rushing 1st downs
11
4
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
43%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
6
4
3rd Down Attempts
14
14
Red Zone %
67%
NaN%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
--
Negative Plays


Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-5.55
-7.90
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-6
-15
Sack EPA
-2.50
-2.62
Penalties
1
6
Penalty Yards
--
32
Penalty EPA
--
-3.83
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner

ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market73.2%
Model73.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-153
Home nfelo
1,417
Away nfelo
1,539
Home Field
+13.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-48.6
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-44.8
Home QB Adjustment
-49.2
Away QB Adjustment
-4.4
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-174.6
Model Spread
+7.0
Quarterbacks

M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-4.4

C. Painter
Proj. Value
-4.3
Team Elo Adj
-49.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Falcons Offense vs Colts Defense


Total
Points / Game
10
28
Yards / Game
12
24
Passing Yards / Game
24
20
Rushing Yards / Game
18
29
EPA
EPA / Play
13
25
EPA / Pass
9
29
EPA / Rush
23
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
18
Interceptions / Game
8
31
Fumbles / Game
9
18
Turnover EPA / Game
28
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
31
4th Down Efficiency
30
23
RZ Efficiency
13
31
Colts Offense vs Falcons Defense


Total
Points / Game
28
17
Yards / Game
30
13
Passing Yards / Game
27
8
Rushing Yards / Game
26
7
EPA
EPA / Play
31
14
EPA / Pass
28
16
EPA / Rush
30
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
28
Interceptions / Game
13
11
Fumbles / Game
31
17
Turnover EPA / Game
5
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
30
4th Down Efficiency
20
27
RZ Efficiency
27
8
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

Falcons
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
4-5-1
O/U

Colts
1-9
SU
2-8
ATS
6-4
O/U