ATLFalcons
5-6
13
TBD
FedExField
46°F
9 mph
19
WASCommanders
6-5
TBD
FedExField
46°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
3
7
3
0
13
Commanders
7
3
6
3
19
Spread
-3.5
Total
UNDER
40.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
332
314
Total Plays
55
60
Yards / Play
6.0
5.2
EPA / Play
+0.01
+0.10
Passing Yards
165
--
Comp/Att
15/25(60%)
14/23(61%)
Yards / Pass
6.6
--
EPA / Pass
-0.19
+0.10
Rushing Yards
167
176
Rush Attempts
29
37
Yards / Rush
5.8
4.8
EPA / Rush
+0.20
+0.13
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
20
Passing 1st downs
6
8
Rushing 1st downs
10
11
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
40%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
10
12
Red Zone %
50%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.89
-2.15
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-9
--
Sack EPA
-1.33
--
Penalties
2
4
Penalty Yards
20
28
Penalty EPA
-1.50
-5.80
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
WASCommandersFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+51
Home nfelo
1,452
Away nfelo
1,440
Home Field
+54.3
Base HFA
+40.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.1
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-15.1
Home QB Adjustment
-17.2
Away QB Adjustment
-2.1
Market Regression
-14.0
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
M. Mariota
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
-2.1
T. Heinicke
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
-17.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Falcons Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
8
Yards / Game
24
3
Passing Yards / Game
31
10
Rushing Yards / Game
2
11
EPA
EPA / Play
14
8
EPA / Pass
19
8
EPA / Rush
8
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
8
Interceptions / Game
5
29
Fumbles / Game
20
29
Turnover EPA / Game
24
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
1
4th Down Efficiency
16
14
RZ Efficiency
14
9
Commanders Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
21
Yards / Game
20
26
Passing Yards / Game
16
1
Rushing Yards / Game
12
23
EPA
EPA / Play
22
28
EPA / Pass
25
31
EPA / Rush
21
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
22
Interceptions / Game
25
24
Fumbles / Game
20
20
Turnover EPA / Game
21
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
31
4th Down Efficiency
21
5
RZ Efficiency
23
13
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Falcons
5-5
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Commanders
5-5
SU
5-4-1
ATS
3-7
O/U