ATLFalcons
0-1
39
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
040
DALCowboys
0-1
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
20
9
0
10
39
Cowboys
0
10
14
16
40
Spread
+3
Total
OVER
53
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
380
570
Total Plays
73
82
Yards / Play
5.2
7.0
EPA / Play
+0.10
+0.05
Passing Yards
267
445
Comp/Att
24/38(63%)
34/49(69%)
Yards / Pass
7.0
9.1
EPA / Pass
+0.32
+0.18
Rushing Yards
113
125
Rush Attempts
34
32
Yards / Rush
3.3
3.9
EPA / Rush
-0.12
-0.10
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
33
Passing 1st downs
15
20
Rushing 1st downs
5
9
Penalty 1st downs
2
4
3rd Down %
47%
54%
3rd Down Conversions
8
7
3rd Down Attempts
17
13
Red Zone %
50%
83%
Red Zone Conversions
2
5
Red Zone Attempts
4
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
3
Turnover EPA
--
-16.13
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-6
-5
Sack EPA
-1.00
-5.03
Penalties
8
7
Penalty Yards
51
75
Penalty EPA
-5.36
-5.54
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+37
Home nfelo
1,550
Away nfelo
1,518
Home Field
+5.1
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-1.1
Net QB Adjustment
+0.4
Home QB Adjustment
+5.9
Away QB Adjustment
+5.5
Market Regression
-21.0
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+5.5
R. Prescott
Proj. Value
+0.6
Team Elo Adj
+5.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Falcons Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
28
Yards / Game
15
23
Passing Yards / Game
1
16
Rushing Yards / Game
28
31
EPA
EPA / Play
14
21
EPA / Pass
11
18
EPA / Rush
27
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
7
Interceptions / Game
11
23
Fumbles / Game
12
2
Turnover EPA / Game
26
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
27
4th Down Efficiency
15
11
RZ Efficiency
26
20
Cowboys Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
19
Yards / Game
13
29
Passing Yards / Game
4
30
Rushing Yards / Game
17
7
EPA
EPA / Play
24
19
EPA / Pass
25
26
EPA / Rush
18
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
12
11
Interceptions / Game
17
16
Fumbles / Game
31
13
Turnover EPA / Game
4
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
16
4th Down Efficiency
22
7
RZ Efficiency
29
27
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Falcons
6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U
Cowboys
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U