ATLFalcons
4-4
3
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
043
DALCowboys
6-2
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
3
0
0
0
3
Cowboys
7
23
7
0
37
Spread
-8
Total
UNDER
55
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
214
433
Total Plays
53
73
Yards / Play
4.0
5.9
EPA / Play
-0.62
+0.16
Passing Yards
111
--
Comp/Att
10/27(37%)
28/35(80%)
Yards / Pass
4.1
--
EPA / Pass
-0.84
+0.59
Rushing Yards
103
116
Rush Attempts
24
38
Yards / Rush
4.3
3.1
EPA / Rush
-0.08
-0.21
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
11
22
Passing 1st downs
8
14
Rushing 1st downs
3
8
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
9%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
1
6
3rd Down Attempts
11
14
Red Zone %
0%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
--
5
Red Zone Attempts
1
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
3
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-12.53
-4.86
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-20
--
Sack EPA
-2.65
--
Penalties
6
8
Penalty Yards
41
80
Penalty EPA
-4.56
-2.54
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-8.0
Model
-8.5
Win Probability
Market75.7%
Model76.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+241
Home nfelo
1,615
Away nfelo
1,419
Home Field
+33.1
Base HFA
+40.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-7.2
Net QB Adjustment
+12.3
Home QB Adjustment
+21.4
Away QB Adjustment
+9.2
Market Regression
-29.2
Final Difference
206.3
Model Spread
-8.5
Quarterbacks
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+9.2
R. Prescott
Proj. Value
+0.6
Team Elo Adj
+21.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Falcons Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
8
Yards / Game
29
18
Passing Yards / Game
23
9
Rushing Yards / Game
31
20
EPA
EPA / Play
26
2
EPA / Pass
23
1
EPA / Rush
32
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
20
Interceptions / Game
21
1
Fumbles / Game
28
9
Turnover EPA / Game
7
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
2
4th Down Efficiency
28
25
RZ Efficiency
24
21
Cowboys Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
29
Yards / Game
2
25
Passing Yards / Game
7
4
Rushing Yards / Game
9
27
EPA
EPA / Play
6
29
EPA / Pass
4
27
EPA / Rush
20
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
12
Interceptions / Game
7
20
Fumbles / Game
12
11
Turnover EPA / Game
20
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
30
4th Down Efficiency
12
11
RZ Efficiency
5
25
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Falcons
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Cowboys
7-3
SU
8-2
ATS
6-4
O/U