ATLFalcons
-
12
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
81°F
8 mph
18
PHIEagles
-
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
81°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
3
3
0
6
12
Eagles
0
3
7
8
18
Spread
0
Total
UNDER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
299
234
Total Plays
65
65
Yards / Play
4.6
3.6
EPA / Play
-0.14
-0.07
Passing Yards
225
119
Comp/Att
21/43(49%)
20/35(57%)
Yards / Pass
5.2
3.4
EPA / Pass
-0.27
-0.26
Rushing Yards
74
115
Rush Attempts
18
28
Yards / Rush
4.1
4.1
EPA / Rush
-0.15
+0.14
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
18
Passing 1st downs
9
6
Rushing 1st downs
4
7
Penalty 1st downs
3
5
3rd Down %
24%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
4
8
3rd Down Attempts
17
19
Red Zone %
20%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
+0.72
-5.63
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-26
-13
Sack EPA
-5.61
-2.87
Penalties
15
11
Penalty Yards
135
101
Penalty EPA
-11.03
-9.22
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
+4.0
Current
N/A
Model
+2.5
Win Probability
Market50.0%
Model42.5%
Spread Pick
EaglesN/A
Expected Value
+5.9%
Cover Probability
55.4%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+99
Home nfelo
1,605
Away nfelo
1,574
Home Field
+76.0
Base HFA
+56.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.7
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-8.4
Home QB Adjustment
-10.2
Away QB Adjustment
-1.8
Market Regression
-53.1
Final Difference
52.1
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-1.8
N. Foles
Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
-10.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Falcons Offense vs Eagles Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
9
Yards / Game
6
23
Passing Yards / Game
3
29
Rushing Yards / Game
27
6
EPA
EPA / Play
5
22
EPA / Pass
6
22
EPA / Rush
24
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
22
Interceptions / Game
3
25
Fumbles / Game
29
25
Turnover EPA / Game
20
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
8
4th Down Efficiency
19
20
RZ Efficiency
11
1
Eagles Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
25
Yards / Game
17
28
Passing Yards / Game
11
26
Rushing Yards / Game
30
25
EPA
EPA / Play
11
30
EPA / Pass
11
23
EPA / Rush
22
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
13
Interceptions / Game
21
11
Fumbles / Game
24
31
Turnover EPA / Game
12
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
31
4th Down Efficiency
16
28
RZ Efficiency
17
27
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Falcons
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
2-8
O/U
Eagles
8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U