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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. falcons @ eagles week 1, 2018

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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ATL logo
ATLFalcons
-
12
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
81°F
8 mph
18
PHIEagles
-
PHI logo
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
81°F
8 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
3
3
0
6
12
Eagles
0
3
7
8
18

Spread

PHI logo
0

Total

UNDER
44.5

Game Statistics

General
Falcons logo
Eagles logo
Total Yards
299
234
Total Plays
65
65
Yards / Play
4.6
3.6
EPA / Play
-0.14
-0.07
Passing Yards
225
119
Comp/Att
21/43(49%)
20/35(57%)
Yards / Pass
5.2
3.4
EPA / Pass
-0.27
-0.26
Rushing Yards
74
115
Rush Attempts
18
28
Yards / Rush
4.1
4.1
EPA / Rush
-0.15
+0.14
Downs & Conversions
Falcons logo
Eagles logo
1st Downs
16
18
Passing 1st downs
9
6
Rushing 1st downs
4
7
Penalty 1st downs
3
5
3rd Down %
24%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
4
8
3rd Down Attempts
17
19
Red Zone %
20%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Falcons logo
Eagles logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
+0.72
-5.63
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-26
-13
Sack EPA
-5.61
-2.87
Penalties
15
11
Penalty Yards
135
101
Penalty EPA
-11.03
-9.22

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
ATL logo
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
+4.0
Current
N/A
Model
+3.0

Win Probability

Market50.0%
Model42.0%
Spread Pick
PHI logo
EaglesN/A
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+17.1%
Cover Probability
61.3%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+102
Home nfelo
1,604
Away nfelo
1,570
Home Field
+77.0
Base HFA
+57.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.9
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-8.4
Home QB Adjustment
-10.2
Away QB Adjustment
-1.8
Market Regression
-49.0
Final Difference
56.3
Model Spread
-3.0

Quarterbacks

M. Ryan headshot

M. Ryan

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-1.8
Value
Ptile
11/12
1.5
64
11/20
3.6
79
11/26
6.0
88
12/03
-1.7
40
12/07
-6.3
15
12/18
0.5
55
12/24
-3.0
31
12/31
4.1
81
01/06
-0.3
49
01/13
-1.5
42
N. Foles headshot

N. Foles

Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
-10.2
Value
Ptile
11/15
-6.8
8
11/29
-5.2
14
12/06
-7.3
6
11/06
-3.2
25
12/17
4.4
82
12/25
-6.6
13
12/31
-9.0
4
01/13
0.5
56
01/21
10.9
98
02/04
8.0
93

Team Matchup Ranks

Falcons Offense vs Eagles Defense
Falcons logo
Eagles logo

Total

Points / Game
9
9
Yards / Game
6
23
Passing Yards / Game
3
29
Rushing Yards / Game
27
6

EPA

EPA / Play
5
22
EPA / Pass
6
22
EPA / Rush
24
20

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
22
Interceptions / Game
3
25
Fumbles / Game
29
25
Turnover EPA / Game
20
6

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
5
8
4th Down Efficiency
19
20
RZ Efficiency
11
1
Eagles Offense vs Falcons Defense
Eagles logo
Falcons logo

Total

Points / Game
20
25
Yards / Game
17
28
Passing Yards / Game
11
26
Rushing Yards / Game
30
25

EPA

EPA / Play
11
30
EPA / Pass
11
23
EPA / Rush
22
32

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
22
13
Interceptions / Game
21
11
Fumbles / Game
24
31
Turnover EPA / Game
12
16

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
12
31
4th Down Efficiency
16
28
RZ Efficiency
17
27

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

ATL logo

Falcons

7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/12
20
W
W
U
11/20
3
W
W
O
11/26
14
W
W
O
12/03
-5
L
L
U
12/07
3
W
W
U
12/18
3
W
L
U
12/24
-10
L
L
U
12/31
12
W
W
U
01/06
13
W
W
U
01/13
-5
L
L
U
PHI logo

Eagles

8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/19
28
W
W
U
11/26
28
W
W
U
12/03
-14
L
L
U
12/10
8
W
W
O
12/17
5
W
L
O
12/25
9
W
L
U
12/31
-6
L
L
U
01/13
5
W
W
U
01/21
31
W
W
O
02/04
8
W
W
O