ATLFalcons
6-3
15
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
58°F
10 mph
24
PHIEagles
4-4
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
58°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
0
6
3
6
15
Eagles
7
0
3
14
24
Spread
-1.5
Total
UNDER
48.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
303
431
Total Plays
48
77
Yards / Play
6.3
5.6
EPA / Play
-0.14
+0.01
Passing Yards
255
221
Comp/Att
18/33(55%)
25/36(69%)
Yards / Pass
7.7
6.1
EPA / Pass
-0.04
+0.04
Rushing Yards
48
210
Rush Attempts
13
39
Yards / Rush
3.7
5.4
EPA / Rush
-0.12
+0.14
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
11
25
Passing 1st downs
7
12
Rushing 1st downs
3
12
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
18%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
2
5
3rd Down Attempts
11
14
Red Zone %
0%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-1.33
-5.01
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-12
-10
Sack EPA
-1.82
-6.10
Penalties
8
10
Penalty Yards
67
77
Penalty EPA
-7.59
-7.44
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-1.5
Model
-1.0
Win Probability
Market53.2%
Model52.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-9
Home nfelo
1,517
Away nfelo
1,566
Home Field
+77.3
Base HFA
+57.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.0
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-36.5
Home QB Adjustment
-8.4
Away QB Adjustment
+28.1
Market Regression
-2.2
Final Difference
16.0
Model Spread
-1.0
Quarterbacks
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+28.1
C. Wentz
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-8.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Falcons Offense vs Eagles Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
11
Yards / Game
2
12
Passing Yards / Game
2
3
Rushing Yards / Game
5
15
EPA
EPA / Play
1
10
EPA / Pass
1
5
EPA / Rush
4
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
19
Interceptions / Game
3
8
Fumbles / Game
4
17
Turnover EPA / Game
32
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
19
4th Down Efficiency
9
11
RZ Efficiency
9
3
Eagles Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
27
Yards / Game
20
27
Passing Yards / Game
22
31
Rushing Yards / Game
9
17
EPA
EPA / Play
16
24
EPA / Pass
20
22
EPA / Rush
13
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
11
Interceptions / Game
16
17
Fumbles / Game
7
15
Turnover EPA / Game
23
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
25
4th Down Efficiency
18
29
RZ Efficiency
25
32
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Falcons
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
8-2
O/U
Eagles
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U