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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. falcons @ eagles week 10, 2016

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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ATL logo
ATLFalcons
6-3
15
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
58°F
10 mph
24
PHIEagles
4-4
PHI logo
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
58°F
10 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
0
6
3
6
15
Eagles
7
0
3
14
24

Spread

PHI logo
-1.5

Total

UNDER
48.5

Game Statistics

General
Falcons logo
Eagles logo
Total Yards
303
431
Total Plays
48
77
Yards / Play
6.3
5.6
EPA / Play
-0.14
+0.01
Passing Yards
255
221
Comp/Att
18/33(55%)
25/36(69%)
Yards / Pass
7.7
6.1
EPA / Pass
-0.04
+0.04
Rushing Yards
48
210
Rush Attempts
13
39
Yards / Rush
3.7
5.4
EPA / Rush
-0.12
+0.14
Downs & Conversions
Falcons logo
Eagles logo
1st Downs
11
25
Passing 1st downs
7
12
Rushing 1st downs
3
12
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
18%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
2
5
3rd Down Attempts
11
14
Red Zone %
0%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Falcons logo
Eagles logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-1.33
-5.01
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-12
-10
Sack EPA
-1.82
-6.10
Penalties
8
10
Penalty Yards
67
77
Penalty EPA
-7.59
-7.44

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
PHI logo
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-1.5
Model
-1.0

Win Probability

Market53.2%
Model52.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-10
Home nfelo
1,516
Away nfelo
1,568
Home Field
+78.8
Base HFA
+58.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.4
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-36.5
Home QB Adjustment
-8.4
Away QB Adjustment
+28.1
Market Regression
-1.9
Final Difference
15.7
Model Spread
-1.0

Quarterbacks

M. Ryan headshot

M. Ryan

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+28.1
Value
Ptile
01/03
1.6
63
09/11
4.1
79
09/18
8.1
93
09/26
1.6
60
10/02
12.5
99
10/09
0.7
55
10/16
3.4
75
10/23
-1.7
35
10/30
8.1
93
11/03
8.0
92
C. Wentz headshot

C. Wentz

Proj. Value
-2.1
Team Elo Adj
-8.4
Value
Ptile
09/11
1.5
60
09/19
-2.0
34
09/25
7.7
91
10/09
0.4
53
10/16
-8.4
4
10/23
-4.1
19
10/30
-0.5
45
11/06
-4.1
19

Team Matchup Ranks

Falcons Offense vs Eagles Defense
Falcons logo
Eagles logo

Total

Points / Game
1
11
Yards / Game
2
12
Passing Yards / Game
2
3
Rushing Yards / Game
5
15

EPA

EPA / Play
1
10
EPA / Pass
1
5
EPA / Rush
4
19

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
20
19
Interceptions / Game
3
8
Fumbles / Game
4
17
Turnover EPA / Game
32
26

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
7
19
4th Down Efficiency
9
11
RZ Efficiency
9
3
Eagles Offense vs Falcons Defense
Eagles logo
Falcons logo

Total

Points / Game
16
27
Yards / Game
20
27
Passing Yards / Game
22
31
Rushing Yards / Game
9
17

EPA

EPA / Play
16
24
EPA / Pass
20
22
EPA / Rush
13
22

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
15
11
Interceptions / Game
16
17
Fumbles / Game
7
15
Turnover EPA / Game
23
30

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
18
25
4th Down Efficiency
18
29
RZ Efficiency
25
32

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

ATL logo

Falcons

6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
8-2
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/03
-3
L
L
U
09/11
-7
L
L
O
09/18
7
W
W
O
09/26
13
W
W
O
10/02
15
W
W
O
10/09
7
W
W
U
10/16
-2
L
W
O
10/23
-3
L
L
O
10/30
1
W
L
O
11/03
15
W
W
O
PHI logo

Eagles

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/26
-14
L
L
O
01/03
5
W
W
O
09/11
19
W
W
U
09/19
15
W
W
O
09/25
31
W
W
U
10/09
-1
L
L
O
10/16
-7
L
L
O
10/23
11
W
W
U
10/30
-6
L
L
O
11/06
-5
L
L
O