ATLFalcons
0-2
17
TBD
MetLife Stadium
69°F
13 mph
14
NYGGiants
0-2
TBD
MetLife Stadium
69°F
13 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
0
7
0
10
17
Giants
3
3
0
8
14
Spread
+2.5
Total
UNDER
48
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
296
348
Total Plays
59
65
Yards / Play
5.0
5.4
EPA / Play
+0.02
-0.02
Passing Yards
227
246
Comp/Att
27/36(75%)
24/35(69%)
Yards / Pass
6.3
7.0
EPA / Pass
+0.14
+0.14
Rushing Yards
69
102
Rush Attempts
20
28
Yards / Rush
3.5
3.6
EPA / Rush
-0.16
-0.07
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
21
Passing 1st downs
12
12
Rushing 1st downs
3
7
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
38%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
5
7
3rd Down Attempts
13
14
Red Zone %
100%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-1.34
-2.29
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-16
-20
Sack EPA
-3.97
-2.96
Penalties
4
8
Penalty Yards
28
53
Penalty EPA
-3.60
-8.49
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NYGGiantsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+36
Home nfelo
1,405
Away nfelo
1,431
Home Field
+43.2
Base HFA
+43.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+18.0
Home QB Adjustment
+12.0
Away QB Adjustment
-6.1
Market Regression
-22.8
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-6.1
D. Jones
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
+12.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Falcons Offense vs Giants Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
23
Yards / Game
29
21
Passing Yards / Game
23
17
Rushing Yards / Game
31
25
EPA
EPA / Play
26
20
EPA / Pass
23
19
EPA / Rush
32
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
16
Interceptions / Game
21
13
Fumbles / Game
28
18
Turnover EPA / Game
7
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
17
4th Down Efficiency
28
29
RZ Efficiency
24
5
Giants Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
29
Yards / Game
31
25
Passing Yards / Game
32
4
Rushing Yards / Game
23
27
EPA
EPA / Play
31
29
EPA / Pass
31
27
EPA / Rush
24
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
12
Interceptions / Game
29
20
Fumbles / Game
25
11
Turnover EPA / Game
2
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
30
4th Down Efficiency
26
11
RZ Efficiency
32
25
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Falcons
2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Giants
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
1-8-1
O/U