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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. falcons @ giants week 3, 2021

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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ATL logo
ATLFalcons
0-2
17
TBD
MetLife Stadium
69°F
13 mph
14
NYGGiants
0-2
NYG logo
TBD
MetLife Stadium
69°F
13 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
0
7
0
10
17
Giants
3
3
0
8
14

Spread

ATL logo
+2.5

Total

UNDER
48

Game Statistics

General
Falcons logo
Giants logo
Total Yards
296
348
Total Plays
59
65
Yards / Play
5.0
5.4
EPA / Play
+0.02
-0.02
Passing Yards
227
246
Comp/Att
27/36(75%)
24/35(69%)
Yards / Pass
6.3
7.0
EPA / Pass
+0.14
+0.14
Rushing Yards
69
102
Rush Attempts
20
28
Yards / Rush
3.5
3.6
EPA / Rush
-0.16
-0.07
Downs & Conversions
Falcons logo
Giants logo
1st Downs
18
21
Passing 1st downs
12
12
Rushing 1st downs
3
7
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
38%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
5
7
3rd Down Attempts
13
14
Red Zone %
100%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Falcons logo
Giants logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-1.34
-2.29
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-16
-20
Sack EPA
-3.97
-2.96
Penalties
4
8
Penalty Yards
28
53
Penalty EPA
-3.60
-8.49

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NYG logo
NYGGiantsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5

Win Probability

Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+31
Home nfelo
1,401
Away nfelo
1,431
Home Field
+43.3
Base HFA
+43.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+18.0
Home QB Adjustment
+12.0
Away QB Adjustment
-6.1
Market Regression
-22.8
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5

Quarterbacks

M. Ryan headshot

M. Ryan

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-6.1
Value
Ptile
11/08
3.6
71
11/22
-13.9
0
11/29
-3.7
21
12/06
-1.6
32
12/13
-6.5
9
12/20
6.9
88
12/27
2.8
65
01/03
4.8
77
09/12
-5.7
16
09/19
0.6
57
D. Jones headshot

D. Jones

Proj. Value
-0.0
Team Elo Adj
+12.0
Value
Ptile
10/22
3.5
70
11/02
-1.6
32
11/08
-4.3
17
11/15
4.3
75
11/29
-1.5
33
12/13
-12.9
1
12/27
-5.0
15
01/03
-1.3
35
09/12
2.6
72
09/16
7.1
91

Team Matchup Ranks

Falcons Offense vs Giants Defense
Falcons logo
Giants logo

Total

Points / Game
26
23
Yards / Game
29
21
Passing Yards / Game
23
17
Rushing Yards / Game
31
25

EPA

EPA / Play
26
20
EPA / Pass
23
19
EPA / Rush
32
28

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
1
16
Interceptions / Game
21
13
Fumbles / Game
28
18
Turnover EPA / Game
7
13

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
19
17
4th Down Efficiency
28
29
RZ Efficiency
24
5
Giants Offense vs Falcons Defense
Giants logo
Falcons logo

Total

Points / Game
31
29
Yards / Game
31
25
Passing Yards / Game
32
4
Rushing Yards / Game
23
27

EPA

EPA / Play
31
29
EPA / Pass
31
27
EPA / Rush
24
23

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
12
Interceptions / Game
29
20
Fumbles / Game
25
11
Turnover EPA / Game
2
20

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
24
30
4th Down Efficiency
26
11
RZ Efficiency
32
25

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

ATL logo

Falcons

2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/08
7
W
W
O
11/22
-15
L
L
U
11/29
37
W
W
U
12/06
-5
L
L
U
12/13
-3
L
L
U
12/20
-4
L
W
O
12/27
-3
L
W
U
01/03
-17
L
L
O
09/12
-26
L
L
U
09/19
-23
L
L
O
NYG logo

Giants

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
1-8-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/08
3
W
W
P
11/15
10
W
W
U
11/29
2
W
L
U
12/06
5
W
W
U
12/13
-19
L
L
U
12/20
-14
L
L
U
12/27
-14
L
L
U
01/03
4
W
W
U
09/12
-14
L
L
U
09/16
-1
L
W
O