ATLFalcons
2-2
20
TBD
MetLife Stadium
55°F
9 mph
30
NYGGiants
2-2
TBD
MetLife Stadium
55°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
7
6
7
0
20
Giants
7
3
7
13
30
Spread
-4
Total
UNDER
50.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
397
317
Total Plays
67
65
Yards / Play
5.9
4.9
EPA / Play
-0.03
+0.13
Passing Yards
307
193
Comp/Att
29/45(64%)
19/30(63%)
Yards / Pass
6.8
6.4
EPA / Pass
+0.04
+0.25
Rushing Yards
90
124
Rush Attempts
21
34
Yards / Rush
4.3
3.6
EPA / Rush
-0.14
+0.00
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
22
Passing 1st downs
13
11
Rushing 1st downs
5
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
4
3rd Down %
15%
60%
3rd Down Conversions
2
9
3rd Down Attempts
13
15
Red Zone %
33%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
+2.40
-5.32
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-9
-7
Sack EPA
-3.85
-1.66
Penalties
8
3
Penalty Yards
81
15
Penalty EPA
-6.91
-4.70
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NYGGiantsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-4.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market64.7%
Model58.6%
Spread Pick
Falcons+4.0
Expected Value
+10.3%
Cover Probability
55.4%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+12
Home nfelo
1,454
Away nfelo
1,506
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+1.4
Home QB Adjustment
+13.3
Away QB Adjustment
+11.9
Market Regression
+1.3
Final Difference
60.6
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+11.9
E. Manning
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
+13.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Falcons Offense vs Giants Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
22
Yards / Game
7
29
Passing Yards / Game
2
31
Rushing Yards / Game
24
30
EPA
EPA / Play
11
20
EPA / Pass
11
16
EPA / Rush
22
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
23
Interceptions / Game
17
11
Fumbles / Game
15
10
Turnover EPA / Game
14
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
4
4th Down Efficiency
14
9
RZ Efficiency
6
8
Giants Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
27
Yards / Game
11
32
Passing Yards / Game
12
8
Rushing Yards / Game
23
21
EPA
EPA / Play
16
28
EPA / Pass
13
29
EPA / Rush
26
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
20
Interceptions / Game
15
13
Fumbles / Game
22
16
Turnover EPA / Game
9
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
32
4th Down Efficiency
31
19
RZ Efficiency
8
21
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Falcons
4-6
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U
Giants
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U