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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. falcons @ giants week 5, 2014

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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ATL logo
ATLFalcons
2-2
20
TBD
MetLife Stadium
55°F
9 mph
30
NYGGiants
2-2
NYG logo
TBD
MetLife Stadium
55°F
9 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
7
6
7
0
20
Giants
7
3
7
13
30

Spread

NYG logo
-4

Total

UNDER
50.5

Game Statistics

General
Falcons logo
Giants logo
Total Yards
397
317
Total Plays
67
65
Yards / Play
5.9
4.9
EPA / Play
-0.03
+0.13
Passing Yards
307
193
Comp/Att
29/45(64%)
19/30(63%)
Yards / Pass
6.8
6.4
EPA / Pass
+0.04
+0.25
Rushing Yards
90
124
Rush Attempts
21
34
Yards / Rush
4.3
3.6
EPA / Rush
-0.14
+0.00
Downs & Conversions
Falcons logo
Giants logo
1st Downs
20
22
Passing 1st downs
13
11
Rushing 1st downs
5
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
4
3rd Down %
15%
60%
3rd Down Conversions
2
9
3rd Down Attempts
13
15
Red Zone %
33%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Falcons logo
Giants logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
+2.40
-5.32
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-9
-7
Sack EPA
-3.85
-1.66
Penalties
8
3
Penalty Yards
81
15
Penalty EPA
-6.91
-4.70

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NYG logo
NYGGiantsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-4.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market64.7%
Model58.9%
Spread Pick
ATL logo
Falcons+4.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+10.3%
Cover Probability
55.4%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+15
Home nfelo
1,455
Away nfelo
1,504
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+1.4
Home QB Adjustment
+13.3
Away QB Adjustment
+11.9
Market Regression
+1.6
Final Difference
62.2
Model Spread
-3.0

Quarterbacks

M. Ryan headshot

M. Ryan

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+11.9
Value
Ptile
11/21
1.3
60
12/01
-0.1
49
12/08
-0.9
45
12/15
-1.4
43
12/23
6.9
90
12/29
-4.4
23
09/07
13.1
99
09/14
-4.5
23
09/18
7.6
90
09/28
1.1
58
E. Manning headshot

E. Manning

Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
+13.3
Value
Ptile
11/24
-3.0
31
12/01
-1.5
42
12/08
-3.6
27
12/15
-12.8
1
12/22
-3.0
32
12/29
-5.7
16
09/08
-6.5
13
09/14
0.6
53
09/21
3.7
75
09/25
9.4
95

Team Matchup Ranks

Falcons Offense vs Giants Defense
Falcons logo
Giants logo

Total

Points / Game
12
22
Yards / Game
7
29
Passing Yards / Game
2
31
Rushing Yards / Game
24
30

EPA

EPA / Play
11
20
EPA / Pass
11
16
EPA / Rush
22
25

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
2
23
Interceptions / Game
17
11
Fumbles / Game
15
10
Turnover EPA / Game
14
19

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
6
4
4th Down Efficiency
14
9
RZ Efficiency
6
8
Giants Offense vs Falcons Defense
Giants logo
Falcons logo

Total

Points / Game
13
27
Yards / Game
11
32
Passing Yards / Game
12
8
Rushing Yards / Game
23
21

EPA

EPA / Play
16
28
EPA / Pass
13
29
EPA / Rush
26
30

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
29
20
Interceptions / Game
15
13
Fumbles / Game
22
16
Turnover EPA / Game
9
27

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
10
32
4th Down Efficiency
31
19
RZ Efficiency
8
21

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

ATL logo

Falcons

4-6
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/21
-4
L
W
U
12/01
3
W
W
O
12/08
-1
L
W
U
12/15
1
W
L
O
12/23
-10
L
W
O
12/29
-1
L
W
U
09/07
3
W
W
O
09/14
-14
L
L
U
09/18
42
W
W
O
09/28
-13
L
L
O
NYG logo

Giants

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/24
-3
L
L
O
12/01
7
W
W
U
12/08
-23
L
L
O
12/15
-23
L
L
U
12/22
3
W
W
U
12/29
14
W
W
U
09/08
-21
L
L
O
09/14
-11
L
L
U
09/21
13
W
W
O
09/25
31
W
W
O