ATLFalcons
10-6
2
TBD
MetLife Stadium
44°F
12 mph
24
NYGGiants
9-7
TBD
MetLife Stadium
44°F
12 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
0
0
0
0
0
Giants
0
7
10
7
24
Spread
-3
Total
UNDER
47.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
247
442
Total Plays
64
64
Yards / Play
3.9
6.9
EPA / Play
-0.18
+0.17
Passing Yards
183
270
Comp/Att
24/41(59%)
23/32(72%)
Yards / Pass
4.5
8.4
EPA / Pass
-0.09
+0.44
Rushing Yards
64
172
Rush Attempts
21
31
Yards / Rush
3.0
5.5
EPA / Rush
-0.47
+0.05
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
19
Passing 1st downs
9
11
Rushing 1st downs
4
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
29%
53%
3rd Down Conversions
4
8
3rd Down Attempts
14
15
Red Zone %
0%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-16
-7
Sack EPA
-4.01
-1.82
Penalties
3
7
Penalty Yards
15
73
Penalty EPA
-2.28
-7.48
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NYGGiantsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+36
Home nfelo
1,564
Away nfelo
1,585
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-8.3
Home QB Adjustment
+9.7
Away QB Adjustment
+18.0
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+18.0
E. Manning
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
+9.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Falcons Offense vs Giants Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
20
Yards / Game
12
22
Passing Yards / Game
24
27
Rushing Yards / Game
18
18
EPA
EPA / Play
13
24
EPA / Pass
9
26
EPA / Rush
23
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
23
Interceptions / Game
8
14
Fumbles / Game
9
11
Turnover EPA / Game
28
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
16
4th Down Efficiency
30
20
RZ Efficiency
13
21
Giants Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
17
Yards / Game
8
13
Passing Yards / Game
3
8
Rushing Yards / Game
29
7
EPA
EPA / Play
5
14
EPA / Pass
5
16
EPA / Rush
26
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
28
Interceptions / Game
12
11
Fumbles / Game
16
17
Turnover EPA / Game
29
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
30
4th Down Efficiency
25
27
RZ Efficiency
9
8
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Falcons
7-3
SU
5-3-2
ATS
4-6
O/U
Giants
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U