nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. falcons @ giants week 18, 2011

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2025 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

ATL logo
ATLFalcons
10-6
2
TBD
MetLife Stadium
44°F
12 mph
24
NYGGiants
9-7
NYG logo
TBD
MetLife Stadium
44°F
12 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
0
0
0
0
0
Giants
0
7
10
7
24

Spread

NYG logo
-3

Total

UNDER
47.5

Game Statistics

General
Falcons logo
Giants logo
Total Yards
247
442
Total Plays
64
64
Yards / Play
3.9
6.9
EPA / Play
-0.18
+0.17
Passing Yards
183
270
Comp/Att
24/41(59%)
23/32(72%)
Yards / Pass
4.5
8.4
EPA / Pass
-0.09
+0.44
Rushing Yards
64
172
Rush Attempts
21
31
Yards / Rush
3.0
5.5
EPA / Rush
-0.47
+0.05
Downs & Conversions
Falcons logo
Giants logo
1st Downs
14
19
Passing 1st downs
9
11
Rushing 1st downs
4
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
29%
53%
3rd Down Conversions
4
8
3rd Down Attempts
14
15
Red Zone %
0%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Falcons logo
Giants logo
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-16
-7
Sack EPA
-4.01
-1.82
Penalties
3
7
Penalty Yards
15
73
Penalty EPA
-2.28
-7.48

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NYG logo
NYGGiantsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+38
Home nfelo
1,563
Away nfelo
1,582
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-8.3
Home QB Adjustment
+9.7
Away QB Adjustment
+18.0
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0

Quarterbacks

M. Ryan headshot

M. Ryan

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+18.0
Value
Ptile
10/23
-3.1
31
11/06
1.3
62
11/13
3.6
75
11/20
4.8
81
11/27
5.8
86
12/04
-1.8
38
12/11
4.9
81
12/15
5.8
85
12/26
6.8
90
01/01
-0.5
48
E. Manning headshot

E. Manning

Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
+9.7
Value
Ptile
10/30
6.7
89
11/06
0.4
55
11/13
2.2
67
11/20
-2.8
33
11/28
7.9
93
12/04
5.3
82
12/11
5.7
85
12/18
-8.0
6
12/24
-4.9
19
01/01
8.3
94

Team Matchup Ranks

Falcons Offense vs Giants Defense
Falcons logo
Giants logo

Total

Points / Game
10
20
Yards / Game
12
22
Passing Yards / Game
24
27
Rushing Yards / Game
18
18

EPA

EPA / Play
13
24
EPA / Pass
9
26
EPA / Rush
23
17

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
23
Interceptions / Game
8
14
Fumbles / Game
9
11
Turnover EPA / Game
28
17

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
6
16
4th Down Efficiency
30
20
RZ Efficiency
13
21
Giants Offense vs Falcons Defense
Giants logo
Falcons logo

Total

Points / Game
7
17
Yards / Game
8
13
Passing Yards / Game
3
8
Rushing Yards / Game
29
7

EPA

EPA / Play
5
14
EPA / Pass
5
16
EPA / Rush
26
8

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
30
28
Interceptions / Game
12
11
Fumbles / Game
16
17
Turnover EPA / Game
29
27

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
12
30
4th Down Efficiency
25
27
RZ Efficiency
9
8

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

ATL logo

Falcons

7-3
SU
5-3-2
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/23
7
W
W
U
11/06
24
W
W
U
11/13
-3
L
L
U
11/20
6
W
P
U
11/27
10
W
P
U
12/04
-7
L
L
U
12/11
8
W
W
O
12/15
27
W
W
O
12/26
-29
L
L
O
01/01
21
W
W
O
NYG logo

Giants

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/30
3
W
L
U
11/06
4
W
W
U
11/13
-7
L
L
O
11/20
-7
L
L
U
11/28
-25
L
L
O
12/04
-3
L
W
O
12/11
3
W
W
O
12/18
-13
L
L
U
12/24
15
W
W
U
01/01
17
W
W
U