ATLFalcons
6-7
23
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
65°F
8 mph
17
JAXJaguars
5-8
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
65°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
7
10
0
6
23
Jaguars
0
3
14
0
17
Spread
+2
Total
UNDER
47.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
328
370
Total Plays
69
60
Yards / Play
4.8
6.2
EPA / Play
+0.04
-0.11
Passing Yards
245
285
Comp/Att
22/35(63%)
23/38(61%)
Yards / Pass
7.0
7.5
EPA / Pass
+0.17
-0.15
Rushing Yards
83
85
Rush Attempts
33
20
Yards / Rush
2.5
4.3
EPA / Rush
-0.24
-0.07
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
21
Passing 1st downs
13
14
Rushing 1st downs
6
6
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
50%
0%
3rd Down Conversions
7
--
3rd Down Attempts
14
8
Red Zone %
40%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-5.21
-7.65
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-1
-12
Sack EPA
-0.77
-2.85
Penalties
5
5
Penalty Yards
43
62
Penalty EPA
-4.42
-5.95
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
JAXJaguarsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-2.0
Model
-2.0
Win Probability
Market54.2%
Model54.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+76
Home nfelo
1,394
Away nfelo
1,443
Home Field
+81.3
Base HFA
+60.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.1
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+44.2
Home QB Adjustment
+32.0
Away QB Adjustment
-12.2
Market Regression
-59.5
Final Difference
29.3
Model Spread
-2.0
Quarterbacks
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-12.2
R. Bortles
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+32.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Falcons Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
31
Yards / Game
5
24
Passing Yards / Game
4
32
Rushing Yards / Game
19
15
EPA
EPA / Play
16
18
EPA / Pass
8
26
EPA / Rush
29
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
4
Interceptions / Game
24
26
Fumbles / Game
29
15
Turnover EPA / Game
7
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
31
4th Down Efficiency
14
17
RZ Efficiency
17
25
Jaguars Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
14
Yards / Game
17
15
Passing Yards / Game
6
3
Rushing Yards / Game
27
14
EPA
EPA / Play
24
15
EPA / Pass
19
17
EPA / Rush
30
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
13
24
Interceptions / Game
26
10
Fumbles / Game
15
23
Turnover EPA / Game
4
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
27
4th Down Efficiency
13
5
RZ Efficiency
18
26
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Falcons
3-7
SU
1-9
ATS
1-8-1
O/U
Jaguars
4-6
SU
6-3-1
ATS
7-3
O/U