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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. falcons @ jets week 13, 2025

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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ATL logo
ATLFalcons
4-7
24
TBD
MetLife Stadium
43°F
8 mph
27
NYJJets
2-9
NYJ logo
TBD
MetLife Stadium
43°F
8 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
0
7
10
7
24
Jets
0
7
7
13
27

Spread

NYJ logo
+3

Total

OVER
38.5

Game Statistics

General
Falcons logo
Jets logo
Total Yards
389
269
Total Plays
67
63
Yards / Play
5.8
4.3
EPA / Play
+0.15
+0.19
Passing Yards
222
159
Comp/Att
21/33(64%)
19/33(58%)
Yards / Pass
6.7
4.8
EPA / Pass
+0.18
-0.03
Rushing Yards
167
110
Rush Attempts
32
28
Yards / Rush
5.2
3.9
EPA / Rush
+0.18
+0.06
Downs & Conversions
Falcons logo
Jets logo
1st Downs
25
16
Passing 1st downs
12
8
Rushing 1st downs
11
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
33%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
4
7
3rd Down Attempts
12
16
Red Zone %
100%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Falcons logo
Jets logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
+6.32
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-12
-13
Sack EPA
-4.30
-1.51
Penalties
1
9
Penalty Yards
--
59
Penalty EPA
--
-8.48

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
ATL logo
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-93
Home nfelo
1,380
Away nfelo
1,454
Home Field
+43.9
Base HFA
+43.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-61.8
Home QB Adjustment
-24.4
Away QB Adjustment
+37.4
Market Regression
-22.1
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0

Quarterbacks

K. Cousins headshot

K. Cousins

Proj. Value
+0.0
Team Elo Adj
+37.4
Value
Ptile
10/20
-4.8
18
10/27
7.1
90
11/03
2.8
68
11/10
-3.2
26
11/17
-5.7
13
12/01
-8.0
6
12/08
-1.6
37
12/16
-7.6
6
10/26
-3.0
29
11/23
-2.2
35
T. Taylor headshot

T. Taylor

Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
-24.4
Value
Ptile
11/21
0.5
56
11/28
-5.9
15
12/05
-10.5
3
10/15
-0.2
47
10/22
1.4
59
10/29
-6.0
14
12/31
-0.7
45
01/07
3.8
75
09/21
-0.8
44
11/23
-3.3
28

Team Matchup Ranks

Falcons Offense vs Jets Defense
Falcons logo
Jets logo

Total

Points / Game
24
30
Yards / Game
13
23
Passing Yards / Game
17
15
Rushing Yards / Game
5
27

EPA

EPA / Play
24
30
EPA / Pass
19
31
EPA / Rush
15
24

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
31
2
Interceptions / Game
3
32
Fumbles / Game
28
29
Turnover EPA / Game
22
1

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
29
10
4th Down Efficiency
24
32
RZ Efficiency
9
24
Jets Offense vs Falcons Defense
Jets logo
Falcons logo

Total

Points / Game
28
20
Yards / Game
28
14
Passing Yards / Game
32
25
Rushing Yards / Game
7
26

EPA

EPA / Play
27
20
EPA / Pass
29
13
EPA / Rush
24
27

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
2
30
Interceptions / Game
23
6
Fumbles / Game
28
24
Turnover EPA / Game
10
12

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
26
20
4th Down Efficiency
28
17
RZ Efficiency
31
10

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

ATL logo

Falcons

4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/14
16
W
W
U
09/21
-30
L
L
U
09/28
7
W
W
O
10/13
10
W
W
U
10/19
-10
L
L
U
10/26
-24
L
L
U
11/02
-1
L
W
O
11/09
-6
L
W
O
11/16
-3
L
L
O
11/23
14
W
W
U
NYJ logo

Jets

2-8
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/14
-20
L
L
U
09/21
-2
L
W
O
09/29
-6
L
L
O
10/05
-15
L
L
O
10/12
-2
L
W
U
10/19
-7
L
L
U
10/26
1
W
W
O
11/09
7
W
W
O
11/13
-13
L
L
U
11/23
-13
L
W
U