ATLFalcons
1-1
0
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
83°F
5 mph
30
CARPanthers
0-2
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
83°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
0
0
0
0
0
Panthers
7
3
4
10
24
Spread
+5.5
Total
UNDER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
332
224
Total Plays
66
55
Yards / Play
5.0
4.1
EPA / Play
-0.46
+0.09
Passing Yards
--
114
Comp/Att
23/43(53%)
16/24(67%)
Yards / Pass
--
4.8
EPA / Pass
-0.51
-0.10
Rushing Yards
131
110
Rush Attempts
23
30
Yards / Rush
5.7
3.7
EPA / Rush
-0.02
+0.07
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
15
Passing 1st downs
11
7
Rushing 1st downs
6
7
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
38%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
5
3
3rd Down Attempts
13
11
Red Zone %
NaN%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
--
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-9.11
--
Sacks
--
1
Sack Yards
--
-7
Sack EPA
--
-2.18
Penalties
3
6
Penalty Yards
23
55
Penalty EPA
-3.92
+2.87
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-5.5
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market68.5%
Model65.6%
Spread Pick
Panthers+5.5
Expected Value
+0.8%
Cover Probability
52.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-75
Home nfelo
1,372
Away nfelo
1,495
Home Field
+34.7
Base HFA
+38.6
Divisional Adj
-17.4
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.5
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+12.6
Home QB Adjustment
+3.4
Away QB Adjustment
-9.2
Market Regression
+7.8
Final Difference
-112.1
Model Spread
+4.0
Quarterbacks
M. Penix
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
-9.2
B. Young
Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
+3.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Falcons Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
19
Yards / Game
7
19
Passing Yards / Game
20
3
Rushing Yards / Game
7
23
EPA
EPA / Play
22
14
EPA / Pass
22
18
EPA / Rush
19
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
24
Interceptions / Game
17
6
Fumbles / Game
29
9
Turnover EPA / Game
18
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
15
4th Down Efficiency
22
15
RZ Efficiency
25
10
Panthers Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
14
Yards / Game
24
2
Passing Yards / Game
13
6
Rushing Yards / Game
26
15
EPA
EPA / Play
25
16
EPA / Pass
25
6
EPA / Rush
20
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
28
Interceptions / Game
17
8
Fumbles / Game
18
16
Turnover EPA / Game
13
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
10
4th Down Efficiency
21
29
RZ Efficiency
6
24
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Falcons
3-7
SU
2-8
ATS
3-7
O/U
Panthers
3-7
SU
7-3
ATS
7-3
O/U