ATLFalcons
2-5
10
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
62°F
12 mph
34
CARPanthers
4-3
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
62°F
12 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
0
10
0
0
10
Panthers
7
7
3
11
28
Spread
-9
Total
UNDER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
289
373
Total Plays
48
71
Yards / Play
6.0
5.3
EPA / Play
-0.25
+0.17
Passing Yards
211
242
Comp/Att
20/27(74%)
23/37(62%)
Yards / Pass
7.8
6.5
EPA / Pass
-0.24
+0.14
Rushing Yards
78
131
Rush Attempts
20
33
Yards / Rush
3.9
4.0
EPA / Rush
-0.14
+0.04
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
12
27
Passing 1st downs
10
13
Rushing 1st downs
2
9
Penalty 1st downs
--
5
3rd Down %
40%
57%
3rd Down Conversions
4
8
3rd Down Attempts
10
14
Red Zone %
50%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
2
Interceptions
3
2
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-15.37
-5.09
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-8
-7
Sack EPA
-1.76
-2.32
Penalties
7
2
Penalty Yards
59
--
Penalty EPA
-8.39
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CARPanthersFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-9.0
Model
-8.5
Win Probability
Market77.7%
Model76.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+147
Home nfelo
1,564
Away nfelo
1,471
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-1.9
Home QB Adjustment
+6.0
Away QB Adjustment
+7.9
Market Regression
+32.1
Final Difference
203.1
Model Spread
-8.5
Quarterbacks
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+7.9
C. Newton
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+6.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Falcons Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
2
Yards / Game
16
3
Passing Yards / Game
9
17
Rushing Yards / Game
32
3
EPA
EPA / Play
17
6
EPA / Pass
18
5
EPA / Rush
23
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
9
Interceptions / Game
19
8
Fumbles / Game
17
9
Turnover EPA / Game
19
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
12
4th Down Efficiency
21
1
RZ Efficiency
19
3
Panthers Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
27
Yards / Game
26
26
Passing Yards / Game
25
11
Rushing Yards / Game
12
31
EPA
EPA / Play
13
32
EPA / Pass
15
30
EPA / Rush
5
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
11
Interceptions / Game
14
29
Fumbles / Game
1
5
Turnover EPA / Game
30
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
32
4th Down Efficiency
2
27
RZ Efficiency
15
20
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Falcons
3-7
SU
2-8
ATS
7-3
O/U
Panthers
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U