ATLFalcons
6-6
0
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
63°F
6 mph
38
CARPanthers
12-0
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
63°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
0
0
0
0
0
Panthers
21
7
10
0
38
Spread
-8.5
Total
UNDER
45.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
230
424
Total Plays
62
61
Yards / Play
3.7
7.0
EPA / Play
-0.36
+0.28
Passing Yards
176
282
Comp/Att
25/41(61%)
19/27(70%)
Yards / Pass
4.3
10.4
EPA / Pass
-0.48
+0.63
Rushing Yards
54
142
Rush Attempts
16
32
Yards / Rush
3.4
4.4
EPA / Rush
-0.17
-0.06
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
20
Passing 1st downs
11
12
Rushing 1st downs
3
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
29%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
14
12
Red Zone %
0%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-11.37
--
Sacks
5
2
Sack Yards
-59
-19
Sack EPA
-13.89
-3.58
Penalties
6
6
Penalty Yards
54
60
Penalty EPA
-3.84
-4.43
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CARPanthersFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-8.5
Model
-8.5
Win Probability
Market76.8%
Model76.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+239
Home nfelo
1,604
Away nfelo
1,456
Home Field
+54.1
Base HFA
+60.3
Divisional Adj
-27.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.1
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+36.4
Home QB Adjustment
+29.0
Away QB Adjustment
-7.4
Market Regression
+2.2
Final Difference
207.9
Model Spread
-8.5
Quarterbacks
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-7.4
C. Newton
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+29.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Falcons Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
6
Yards / Game
5
5
Passing Yards / Game
4
20
Rushing Yards / Game
19
4
EPA
EPA / Play
16
2
EPA / Pass
8
2
EPA / Rush
29
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
19
Interceptions / Game
24
1
Fumbles / Game
29
3
Turnover EPA / Game
7
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
9
4th Down Efficiency
14
25
RZ Efficiency
17
8
Panthers Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
14
Yards / Game
11
15
Passing Yards / Game
17
3
Rushing Yards / Game
2
14
EPA
EPA / Play
4
15
EPA / Pass
7
17
EPA / Rush
3
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
24
Interceptions / Game
8
10
Fumbles / Game
26
23
Turnover EPA / Game
22
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
27
4th Down Efficiency
9
5
RZ Efficiency
1
26
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Falcons
4-6
SU
2-8
ATS
2-7-1
O/U
Panthers
10-0
SU
7-3
ATS
8-2
O/U