ATLFalcons
5-7
29
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
48°F
9 mph
21
CARPanthers
5-7
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
48°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
7
4
3
9
23
Panthers
7
0
7
7
21
Spread
+2.5
Total
OVER
41
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
318
334
Total Plays
65
62
Yards / Play
4.9
5.4
EPA / Play
+0.04
-0.17
Passing Yards
--
243
Comp/Att
19/29(66%)
21/35(60%)
Yards / Pass
--
6.9
EPA / Pass
+0.18
-0.13
Rushing Yards
128
91
Rush Attempts
36
26
Yards / Rush
3.6
3.5
EPA / Rush
-0.13
-0.24
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
21
Passing 1st downs
10
13
Rushing 1st downs
9
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
50%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
7
4
3rd Down Attempts
14
11
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-4.47
-17.22
Sacks
--
1
Sack Yards
--
-10
Sack EPA
--
-2.67
Penalties
6
6
Penalty Yards
60
45
Penalty EPA
-6.33
-5.10
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CARPanthersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model62.0%
Spread Pick
Panthers-2.5
Expected Value
+12.4%
Cover Probability
58.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+131
Home nfelo
1,447
Away nfelo
1,404
Home Field
+44.8
Base HFA
+37.8
Divisional Adj
-17.1
Home Bye Adj
+10.8
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.2
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+43.7
Home QB Adjustment
+23.2
Away QB Adjustment
-20.5
Market Regression
-5.7
Final Difference
85.0
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-20.5
C. Newton
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+23.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Falcons Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
20
Yards / Game
29
2
Passing Yards / Game
23
1
Rushing Yards / Game
31
18
EPA
EPA / Play
26
7
EPA / Pass
23
12
EPA / Rush
32
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
5
Interceptions / Game
21
27
Fumbles / Game
28
18
Turnover EPA / Game
7
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
8
4th Down Efficiency
28
18
RZ Efficiency
24
31
Panthers Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
29
Yards / Game
30
25
Passing Yards / Game
29
4
Rushing Yards / Game
20
27
EPA
EPA / Play
32
29
EPA / Pass
32
27
EPA / Rush
17
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
12
Interceptions / Game
32
20
Fumbles / Game
13
11
Turnover EPA / Game
1
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
30
4th Down Efficiency
31
11
RZ Efficiency
25
25
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Falcons
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Panthers
3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U