ATLFalcons
5-9
24
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
52°F
7 mph
10
CARPanthers
6-8
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
52°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
7
3
14
0
24
Panthers
7
3
0
0
10
Spread
-3
Total
UNDER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
427
436
Total Plays
48
84
Yards / Play
8.9
5.2
EPA / Play
+0.08
-0.16
Passing Yards
233
295
Comp/Att
15/26(58%)
37/57(65%)
Yards / Pass
9.0
5.2
EPA / Pass
+0.23
-0.34
Rushing Yards
194
141
Rush Attempts
21
25
Yards / Rush
9.2
5.6
EPA / Rush
-0.15
+0.21
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
29
Passing 1st downs
8
19
Rushing 1st downs
6
8
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
40%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
4
7
3rd Down Attempts
10
14
Red Zone %
50%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
4
Interceptions
0
3
Fumbles
2
1
Turnover EPA
-10.50
-17.90
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-6
-17
Sack EPA
-5.79
-3.94
Penalties
4
10
Penalty Yards
41
86
Penalty EPA
-4.41
-10.59
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
+2.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model61.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-130
Home nfelo
1,500
Away nfelo
1,493
Home Field
+51.7
Base HFA
+57.6
Divisional Adj
-26.0
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.1
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-189.7
Home QB Adjustment
-178.5
Away QB Adjustment
+11.2
Market Regression
-44.0
Final Difference
-80.9
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+11.2
T. Heinicke
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
-178.5
No recent game data available
Team Matchup Ranks
Falcons Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
20
Yards / Game
6
16
Passing Yards / Game
3
23
Rushing Yards / Game
27
12
EPA
EPA / Play
5
27
EPA / Pass
6
27
EPA / Rush
24
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
26
Interceptions / Game
3
16
Fumbles / Game
29
10
Turnover EPA / Game
20
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
20
4th Down Efficiency
19
18
RZ Efficiency
11
28
Panthers Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
25
Yards / Game
9
28
Passing Yards / Game
17
26
Rushing Yards / Game
4
25
EPA
EPA / Play
9
30
EPA / Pass
14
23
EPA / Rush
4
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
13
Interceptions / Game
25
11
Fumbles / Game
9
31
Turnover EPA / Game
19
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
31
4th Down Efficiency
26
28
RZ Efficiency
12
27
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Falcons
4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U
Panthers
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U