ATLFalcons
3-4
23
TBD
Gillette Stadium
52°F
7 mph
24
NEPatriots
6-2
TBD
Gillette Stadium
52°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
7
7
0
9
23
Patriots
7
14
3
0
24
Spread
+5.5
Total
OVER
45.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
288
331
Total Plays
54
68
Yards / Play
5.3
4.9
EPA / Play
+0.02
+0.03
Passing Yards
217
221
Comp/Att
22/37(59%)
19/29(66%)
Yards / Pass
5.9
7.6
EPA / Pass
+0.10
+0.01
Rushing Yards
71
110
Rush Attempts
16
33
Yards / Rush
4.4
3.3
EPA / Rush
+0.00
+0.01
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
23
Passing 1st downs
13
14
Rushing 1st downs
3
9
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
10%
67%
3rd Down Conversions
1
8
3rd Down Attempts
10
12
Red Zone %
100%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-10.70
Sacks
1
6
Sack Yards
-4
-38
Sack EPA
-1.33
-12.06
Penalties
5
2
Penalty Yards
--
15
Penalty EPA
--
-1.09
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-5.5
Model
-5.5
Win Probability
Market68.0%
Model68.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+112
Home nfelo
1,496
Away nfelo
1,456
Home Field
+41.9
Base HFA
+41.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+30.1
Home QB Adjustment
+25.3
Away QB Adjustment
-4.8
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
130.9
Model Spread
-5.5
Quarterbacks
M. Penix
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-4.8
D. Maye
Proj. Value
+0.9
Team Elo Adj
+25.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Falcons Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
5
Yards / Game
16
8
Passing Yards / Game
22
27
Rushing Yards / Game
13
1
EPA
EPA / Play
27
8
EPA / Pass
23
14
EPA / Rush
16
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
6
Interceptions / Game
3
16
Fumbles / Game
29
16
Turnover EPA / Game
23
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
11
4th Down Efficiency
28
2
RZ Efficiency
12
31
Patriots Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
19
Yards / Game
9
17
Passing Yards / Game
1
18
Rushing Yards / Game
20
27
EPA
EPA / Play
6
22
EPA / Pass
1
16
EPA / Rush
28
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
29
Interceptions / Game
9
11
Fumbles / Game
26
25
Turnover EPA / Game
14
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
16
4th Down Efficiency
1
21
RZ Efficiency
17
20
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Falcons
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U
Patriots
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U