ATLFalcons
5-9
9
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
17°F
9 mph
17
BALRavens
9-5
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
17°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
0
3
3
3
9
Ravens
3
11
0
3
17
Spread
-6.5
Total
UNDER
35
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
327
301
Total Plays
68
52
Yards / Play
4.8
5.8
EPA / Play
-0.17
-0.06
Passing Yards
212
--
Comp/Att
22/33(67%)
9/17(53%)
Yards / Pass
6.4
--
EPA / Pass
-0.05
-0.04
Rushing Yards
115
186
Rush Attempts
33
35
Yards / Rush
3.5
5.3
EPA / Rush
-0.26
+0.04
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
15
Passing 1st downs
11
5
Rushing 1st downs
5
10
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
36%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
14
12
Red Zone %
0%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-1.94
--
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-6
--
Sack EPA
-2.49
--
Penalties
5
1
Penalty Yards
--
--
Penalty EPA
--
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market71.0%
Model71.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+145
Home nfelo
1,576
Away nfelo
1,412
Home Field
+55.6
Base HFA
+41.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.4
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-73.8
Home QB Adjustment
-122.5
Away QB Adjustment
-48.8
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
155.5
Model Spread
-6.5
Quarterbacks
D. Ridder
Proj. Value
-1.6
Team Elo Adj
-48.8
Value
Ptile
T. Huntley
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-122.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Falcons Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
3
Yards / Game
24
6
Passing Yards / Game
31
31
Rushing Yards / Game
2
3
EPA
EPA / Play
14
11
EPA / Pass
19
18
EPA / Rush
8
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
21
Interceptions / Game
5
16
Fumbles / Game
20
7
Turnover EPA / Game
24
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
4
4th Down Efficiency
16
28
RZ Efficiency
14
4
Ravens Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
21
Yards / Game
16
26
Passing Yards / Game
28
1
Rushing Yards / Game
3
23
EPA
EPA / Play
12
28
EPA / Pass
21
31
EPA / Rush
5
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
22
Interceptions / Game
16
24
Fumbles / Game
18
20
Turnover EPA / Game
18
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
31
4th Down Efficiency
25
5
RZ Efficiency
30
13
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Falcons
3-7
SU
3-6-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Ravens
7-3
SU
3-7
ATS
2-8
O/U