ATLFalcons
3-4
27
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
025
NOSaints
5-2
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
3
7
7
10
27
Saints
0
0
3
22
25
Spread
+7
Total
OVER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
366
376
Total Plays
57
71
Yards / Play
6.4
5.3
EPA / Play
-0.02
-0.05
Passing Yards
332
267
Comp/Att
23/30(77%)
27/44(61%)
Yards / Pass
11.1
6.1
EPA / Pass
+0.58
-0.08
Rushing Yards
34
109
Rush Attempts
25
26
Yards / Rush
1.4
4.2
EPA / Rush
-0.52
-0.07
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
26
Passing 1st downs
14
17
Rushing 1st downs
2
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
38%
30%
3rd Down Conversions
5
3
3rd Down Attempts
13
10
Red Zone %
60%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-8.38
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-11
-15
Sack EPA
-2.24
-8.38
Penalties
6
10
Penalty Yards
76
74
Penalty EPA
-8.86
-7.01
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+155
Home nfelo
1,619
Away nfelo
1,410
Home Field
+15.0
Base HFA
+40.6
Divisional Adj
-18.3
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-7.3
Net QB Adjustment
-68.6
Home QB Adjustment
-69.5
Away QB Adjustment
-0.9
Market Regression
+40.1
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0
Quarterbacks
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-0.9
T. Siemian
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-69.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Falcons Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
4
Yards / Game
29
6
Passing Yards / Game
23
13
Rushing Yards / Game
31
4
EPA
EPA / Play
26
1
EPA / Pass
23
3
EPA / Rush
32
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
18
Interceptions / Game
21
6
Fumbles / Game
28
18
Turnover EPA / Game
7
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
5
4th Down Efficiency
28
5
RZ Efficiency
24
1
Saints Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
29
Yards / Game
28
25
Passing Yards / Game
31
4
Rushing Yards / Game
16
27
EPA
EPA / Play
28
29
EPA / Pass
24
27
EPA / Rush
27
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
12
Interceptions / Game
12
20
Fumbles / Game
3
11
Turnover EPA / Game
18
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
30
4th Down Efficiency
17
11
RZ Efficiency
16
25
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Falcons
3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Saints
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U