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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. falcons @ saints week 9, 2021

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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ATL logo
ATLFalcons
3-4
27
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0
25
NOSaints
5-2
NO logo
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
3
7
7
10
27
Saints
0
0
3
22
25

Spread

ATL logo
+7

Total

OVER
43

Game Statistics

General
Falcons logo
Saints logo
Total Yards
366
376
Total Plays
57
71
Yards / Play
6.4
5.3
EPA / Play
-0.02
-0.05
Passing Yards
332
267
Comp/Att
23/30(77%)
27/44(61%)
Yards / Pass
11.1
6.1
EPA / Pass
+0.58
-0.08
Rushing Yards
34
109
Rush Attempts
25
26
Yards / Rush
1.4
4.2
EPA / Rush
-0.52
-0.07
Downs & Conversions
Falcons logo
Saints logo
1st Downs
18
26
Passing 1st downs
14
17
Rushing 1st downs
2
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
38%
30%
3rd Down Conversions
5
3
3rd Down Attempts
13
10
Red Zone %
60%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays
Falcons logo
Saints logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-8.38
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-11
-15
Sack EPA
-2.24
-8.38
Penalties
6
10
Penalty Yards
76
74
Penalty EPA
-8.86
-7.01

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NO logo
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0

Win Probability

Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+151
Home nfelo
1,615
Away nfelo
1,411
Home Field
+15.0
Base HFA
+40.6
Divisional Adj
-18.3
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-7.3
Net QB Adjustment
-68.6
Home QB Adjustment
-69.5
Away QB Adjustment
-0.9
Market Regression
+40.1
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0

Quarterbacks

M. Ryan headshot

M. Ryan

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-0.9
Value
Ptile
12/20
6.9
88
12/27
2.8
65
01/03
4.8
77
09/12
-5.7
16
09/19
0.6
57
09/26
1.3
62
10/03
6.0
88
10/10
7.2
91
10/24
1.3
62
10/31
-7.0
11
T. Siemian headshot

T. Siemian

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-69.5
Value
Ptile
09/17
3.5
78
09/24
-5.1
19
10/01
-5.1
19
10/15
-2.6
35
10/22
-4.5
22
10/30
-8.3
7
12/03
-12.5
0
12/10
-1.0
45
12/14
-9.0
5
09/16
-8.3
8

Team Matchup Ranks

Falcons Offense vs Saints Defense
Falcons logo
Saints logo

Total

Points / Game
26
4
Yards / Game
29
6
Passing Yards / Game
23
13
Rushing Yards / Game
31
4

EPA

EPA / Play
26
1
EPA / Pass
23
3
EPA / Rush
32
1

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
1
18
Interceptions / Game
21
6
Fumbles / Game
28
18
Turnover EPA / Game
7
25

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
19
5
4th Down Efficiency
28
5
RZ Efficiency
24
1
Saints Offense vs Falcons Defense
Saints logo
Falcons logo

Total

Points / Game
19
29
Yards / Game
28
25
Passing Yards / Game
31
4
Rushing Yards / Game
16
27

EPA

EPA / Play
28
29
EPA / Pass
24
27
EPA / Rush
27
23

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
25
12
Interceptions / Game
12
20
Fumbles / Game
3
11
Turnover EPA / Game
18
20

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
30
30
4th Down Efficiency
17
11
RZ Efficiency
16
25

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

ATL logo

Falcons

3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/20
-4
L
W
O
12/27
-3
L
W
U
01/03
-17
L
L
O
09/12
-26
L
L
U
09/19
-23
L
L
O
09/26
3
W
W
U
10/03
-4
L
L
O
10/10
7
W
W
O
10/24
2
W
W
O
10/31
-6
L
L
U
NO logo

Saints

7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/03
26
W
W
U
01/10
12
W
W
U
01/17
-10
L
L
U
09/12
35
W
W
U
09/19
-19
L
L
U
09/26
15
W
W
U
10/03
-6
L
L
O
10/10
11
W
W
O
10/25
3
W
L
U
10/31
9
W
W
O