ATLFalcons
8-0
27
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
031
NOSaints
3-5
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
10
7
0
10
27
Saints
7
14
7
3
31
Spread
+1.5
Total
OVER
54
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
454
440
Total Plays
71
62
Yards / Play
6.4
7.1
EPA / Play
+0.17
+0.19
Passing Yards
408
292
Comp/Att
34/52(65%)
21/32(66%)
Yards / Pass
7.8
9.1
EPA / Pass
+0.39
+0.37
Rushing Yards
46
148
Rush Attempts
18
29
Yards / Rush
2.6
5.1
EPA / Rush
-0.40
-0.03
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
25
21
Passing 1st downs
20
17
Rushing 1st downs
3
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
50%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
8
4
3rd Down Attempts
16
10
Red Zone %
50%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
6
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-0.83
-5.34
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-3
-6
Sack EPA
-0.76
-1.96
Penalties
6
5
Penalty Yards
53
35
Penalty EPA
+2.15
-6.71
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-1.5
Model
-1.5
Win Probability
Market53.6%
Model53.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-18
Home nfelo
1,574
Away nfelo
1,598
Home Field
+23.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-16.9
Home QB Adjustment
-0.9
Away QB Adjustment
+16.0
Market Regression
+33.0
Final Difference
-25.1
Model Spread
+1.5
Quarterbacks
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+16.0
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
-0.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Falcons Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
31
Yards / Game
6
32
Passing Yards / Game
2
28
Rushing Yards / Game
27
32
EPA
EPA / Play
9
30
EPA / Pass
3
29
EPA / Rush
30
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
26
Interceptions / Game
17
15
Fumbles / Game
2
16
Turnover EPA / Game
23
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
16
4th Down Efficiency
32
20
RZ Efficiency
9
22
Saints Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
6
Yards / Game
2
24
Passing Yards / Game
3
23
Rushing Yards / Game
25
19
EPA
EPA / Play
8
10
EPA / Pass
8
12
EPA / Rush
12
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
28
Interceptions / Game
28
6
Fumbles / Game
3
10
Turnover EPA / Game
14
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
26
4th Down Efficiency
12
9
RZ Efficiency
3
7
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Falcons
9-1
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U
Saints
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U