ATLFalcons
3-6
9
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
024
NOSaints
7-2
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
3
6
0
0
9
Saints
3
7
7
7
24
Spread
-3.5
Total
UNDER
49.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
248
376
Total Plays
59
62
Yards / Play
4.2
6.1
EPA / Play
-0.29
-0.03
Passing Yards
196
210
Comp/Att
19/37(51%)
18/23(78%)
Yards / Pass
5.3
9.1
EPA / Pass
-0.42
+0.08
Rushing Yards
52
166
Rush Attempts
14
36
Yards / Rush
3.7
4.6
EPA / Rush
-0.20
+0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
24
Passing 1st downs
10
9
Rushing 1st downs
1
12
Penalty 1st downs
3
3
3rd Down %
14%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
2
4
3rd Down Attempts
14
11
Red Zone %
0%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-4.82
-3.75
Sacks
8
3
Sack Yards
-36
-23
Sack EPA
-12.25
-6.96
Penalties
7
5
Penalty Yards
53
35
Penalty EPA
-5.91
-4.35
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-3.5
Model
N/A
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model49.5%
Spread Pick
Falcons+3.5
Expected Value
+14.7%
Cover Probability
60.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-122
Home nfelo
1,637
Away nfelo
1,504
Home Field
-2.5
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
-2.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-4.8
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-1.1
Net QB Adjustment
-252.5
Home QB Adjustment
-242.5
Away QB Adjustment
+10.0
Market Regression
-84.8
Final Difference
-3.1
Model Spread
--
Quarterbacks
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+10.0
T. Hill
Proj. Value
-2.9
Team Elo Adj
-242.5
No recent game data available
Team Matchup Ranks
Falcons Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
3
Yards / Game
15
2
Passing Yards / Game
1
18
Rushing Yards / Game
28
3
EPA
EPA / Play
14
3
EPA / Pass
11
5
EPA / Rush
27
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
25
Interceptions / Game
11
5
Fumbles / Game
12
26
Turnover EPA / Game
26
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
5
4th Down Efficiency
15
15
RZ Efficiency
26
23
Saints Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
19
Yards / Game
12
29
Passing Yards / Game
21
30
Rushing Yards / Game
7
7
EPA
EPA / Play
12
19
EPA / Pass
13
26
EPA / Rush
6
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
11
Interceptions / Game
6
16
Fumbles / Game
26
13
Turnover EPA / Game
18
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
16
4th Down Efficiency
6
7
RZ Efficiency
5
27
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Falcons
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Saints
7-3
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U