nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. falcons @ saints week 12, 2025

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2026 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

ATL logo
ATLFalcons
3-7
24
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0
10
NOSaints
2-8
NO logo
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
3
13
0
8
24
Saints
0
1
0
3
4

Spread

ATL logo
+1.5

Total

UNDER
40.5

Game Statistics

General
Falcons logo
Saints logo
Total Yards
304
293
Total Plays
56
78
Yards / Play
5.4
3.8
EPA / Play
-0.09
-0.30
Passing Yards
181
214
Comp/Att
16/23(70%)
30/45(67%)
Yards / Pass
7.9
4.8
EPA / Pass
-0.15
-0.40
Rushing Yards
123
79
Rush Attempts
30
28
Yards / Rush
4.1
2.8
EPA / Rush
-0.07
-0.13
Downs & Conversions
Falcons logo
Saints logo
1st Downs
13
21
Passing 1st downs
7
11
Rushing 1st downs
6
8
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
25%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
3
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
16
Red Zone %
50%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Falcons logo
Saints logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-8.47
-8.12
Sacks
3
5
Sack Yards
-18
-29
Sack EPA
-5.75
-7.41
Penalties
9
4
Penalty Yards
82
36
Penalty EPA
-6.60
-5.16

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NO logo
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-1.5
Current
-1.5
Model
+2.5

Win Probability

Market53.2%
Model43.4%
Spread Pick
ATL logo
Falcons+1.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+7.6%
Cover Probability
56.4%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-104
Home nfelo
1,345
Away nfelo
1,445
Home Field
+43.6
Base HFA
+43.0
Divisional Adj
-19.4
Home Bye Adj
+12.3
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+7.7
Net QB Adjustment
-47.3
Home QB Adjustment
-4.8
Away QB Adjustment
+42.5
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-46.2
Model Spread
+2.5

Quarterbacks

K. Cousins headshot

K. Cousins

Proj. Value
+0.0
Team Elo Adj
+42.5
Value
Ptile
10/13
0.1
50
10/20
-4.8
18
10/27
7.1
90
11/03
2.8
68
11/10
-3.2
26
11/17
-5.7
13
12/01
-8.0
6
12/08
-1.6
37
12/16
-7.6
6
10/26
-3.0
29
T. Shough headshot

T. Shough

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-4.8
Value
Ptile
11/02
-2.7
32
11/09
2.8
71

Team Matchup Ranks

Falcons Offense vs Saints Defense
Falcons logo
Saints logo

Total

Points / Game
24
16
Yards / Game
13
9
Passing Yards / Game
17
6
Rushing Yards / Game
5
23

EPA

EPA / Play
24
10
EPA / Pass
19
12
EPA / Rush
15
3

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
31
8
Interceptions / Game
3
19
Fumbles / Game
28
3
Turnover EPA / Game
22
25

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
29
3
4th Down Efficiency
24
11
RZ Efficiency
9
11
Saints Offense vs Falcons Defense
Saints logo
Falcons logo

Total

Points / Game
29
20
Yards / Game
23
14
Passing Yards / Game
8
25
Rushing Yards / Game
30
26

EPA

EPA / Play
29
20
EPA / Pass
27
13
EPA / Rush
31
27

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
21
30
Interceptions / Game
16
6
Fumbles / Game
27
24
Turnover EPA / Game
8
12

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
14
20
4th Down Efficiency
32
17
RZ Efficiency
32
10

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

ATL logo

Falcons

3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/07
-3
L
L
U
09/14
16
W
W
U
09/21
-30
L
L
U
09/28
7
W
W
O
10/13
10
W
W
U
10/19
-10
L
L
U
10/26
-24
L
L
U
11/02
-1
L
W
O
11/09
-6
L
W
O
11/16
-3
L
L
O
NO logo

Saints

2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/07
-7
L
L
U
09/14
-5
L
L
O
09/21
-31
L
L
O
09/28
-12
L
W
O
10/05
12
W
W
U
10/12
-6
L
L
U
10/19
-12
L
L
U
10/26
-20
L
L
U
11/02
-24
L
L
U
11/09
10
W
W
U