ATLFalcons
5-9
30
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
014
NOSaints
6-8
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
3
10
7
4
24
Saints
7
0
0
7
14
Spread
+6
Total
UNDER
56
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
403
328
Total Plays
62
70
Yards / Play
6.5
4.7
EPA / Play
+0.13
-0.18
Passing Yards
--
271
Comp/Att
30/40(75%)
30/47(64%)
Yards / Pass
--
5.8
EPA / Pass
+0.44
-0.34
Rushing Yards
81
57
Rush Attempts
22
18
Yards / Rush
3.7
3.2
EPA / Rush
-0.37
-0.12
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
22
Passing 1st downs
15
20
Rushing 1st downs
3
2
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
47%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
7
7
3rd Down Attempts
15
14
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
4
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
-24.20
Sacks
--
5
Sack Yards
--
-42
Sack EPA
--
-19.27
Penalties
6
3
Penalty Yards
64
--
Penalty EPA
-8.76
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market69.3%
Model69.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+134
Home nfelo
1,559
Away nfelo
1,440
Home Field
+23.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-7.7
Home QB Adjustment
+11.8
Away QB Adjustment
+19.5
Market Regression
+10.5
Final Difference
141.4
Model Spread
-6.0
Quarterbacks
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+19.5
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+11.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Falcons Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
28
Yards / Game
7
31
Passing Yards / Game
2
25
Rushing Yards / Game
24
29
EPA
EPA / Play
11
32
EPA / Pass
11
30
EPA / Rush
22
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
23
Interceptions / Game
17
22
Fumbles / Game
15
30
Turnover EPA / Game
14
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
31
4th Down Efficiency
14
19
RZ Efficiency
6
31
Saints Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
27
Yards / Game
1
32
Passing Yards / Game
5
8
Rushing Yards / Game
13
21
EPA
EPA / Play
6
28
EPA / Pass
8
29
EPA / Rush
7
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
20
Interceptions / Game
25
13
Fumbles / Game
28
16
Turnover EPA / Game
4
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
32
4th Down Efficiency
13
19
RZ Efficiency
7
21
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Falcons
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U
Saints
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U