ATLFalcons
7-4
10
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
017
HOUTexans
8-3
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
0
3
7
0
10
Texans
3
7
0
7
17
Spread
+2
Total
UNDER
38.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
337
337
Total Plays
65
72
Yards / Play
5.2
4.7
EPA / Play
-0.16
-0.05
Passing Yards
--
175
Comp/Att
20/47(43%)
12/25(48%)
Yards / Pass
--
7.0
EPA / Pass
-0.19
+0.04
Rushing Yards
70
162
Rush Attempts
18
44
Yards / Rush
3.9
3.7
EPA / Rush
-0.05
-0.05
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
20
Passing 1st downs
13
9
Rushing 1st downs
3
9
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
43%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
6
9
3rd Down Attempts
14
18
Red Zone %
50%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-8.30
-5.14
Sacks
--
3
Sack Yards
--
-13
Sack EPA
--
-7.70
Penalties
7
5
Penalty Yards
43
35
Penalty EPA
-6.00
-4.89
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-2.0
Model
-1.5
Win Probability
Market54.7%
Model53.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-2
Home nfelo
1,630
Away nfelo
1,570
Home Field
+73.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-135.7
Home QB Adjustment
-122.6
Away QB Adjustment
+13.0
Market Regression
-10.5
Final Difference
-26.5
Model Spread
+1.5
Quarterbacks
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+13.0
T. Yates
Proj. Value
-5.8
Team Elo Adj
-122.6
No recent game data available
Team Matchup Ranks
Falcons Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
4
Yards / Game
12
2
Passing Yards / Game
24
11
Rushing Yards / Game
18
2
EPA
EPA / Play
13
2
EPA / Pass
9
1
EPA / Rush
23
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
24
Interceptions / Game
8
12
Fumbles / Game
9
22
Turnover EPA / Game
28
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
13
4th Down Efficiency
30
10
RZ Efficiency
13
11
Texans Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
17
Yards / Game
13
13
Passing Yards / Game
25
8
Rushing Yards / Game
2
7
EPA
EPA / Play
14
14
EPA / Pass
10
16
EPA / Rush
11
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
28
Interceptions / Game
4
11
Fumbles / Game
20
17
Turnover EPA / Game
20
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
30
4th Down Efficiency
30
27
RZ Efficiency
22
8
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Falcons
7-3
SU
4-4-2
ATS
2-8
O/U
Texans
7-3
SU
6-3-1
ATS
3-7
O/U