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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. falcons @ texans week 13, 2011

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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Research and insights that power the nfelo model
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    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

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  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
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  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

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ATL logo
ATLFalcons
7-4
10
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0
17
HOUTexans
8-3
HOU logo
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
0
3
7
0
10
Texans
3
7
0
7
17

Spread

HOU logo
+2

Total

UNDER
38.5

Game Statistics

General
Falcons logo
Texans logo
Total Yards
337
337
Total Plays
65
72
Yards / Play
5.2
4.7
EPA / Play
-0.16
-0.05
Passing Yards
--
175
Comp/Att
20/47(43%)
12/25(48%)
Yards / Pass
--
7.0
EPA / Pass
-0.19
+0.04
Rushing Yards
70
162
Rush Attempts
18
44
Yards / Rush
3.9
3.7
EPA / Rush
-0.05
-0.05
Downs & Conversions
Falcons logo
Texans logo
1st Downs
18
20
Passing 1st downs
13
9
Rushing 1st downs
3
9
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
43%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
6
9
3rd Down Attempts
14
18
Red Zone %
50%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Falcons logo
Texans logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-8.30
-5.14
Sacks
--
3
Sack Yards
--
-13
Sack EPA
--
-7.70
Penalties
7
5
Penalty Yards
43
35
Penalty EPA
-6.00
-4.89

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
ATL logo
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-2.0
Model
-2.0

Win Probability

Market54.7%
Model54.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-5
Home nfelo
1,630
Away nfelo
1,572
Home Field
+73.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-135.7
Home QB Adjustment
-122.6
Away QB Adjustment
+13.0
Market Regression
-16.8
Final Difference
-32.8
Model Spread
+2.0

Quarterbacks

M. Ryan headshot

M. Ryan

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+13.0
Value
Ptile
09/18
-1.8
37
09/25
-1.3
42
10/02
6.1
86
10/09
-4.2
24
10/16
2.0
66
10/23
-3.1
31
11/06
1.3
62
11/13
3.6
75
11/20
4.8
81
11/27
5.8
86
T. Yates headshot

T. Yates

Proj. Value
-5.8
Team Elo Adj
-122.6
No recent game data available

Team Matchup Ranks

Falcons Offense vs Texans Defense
Falcons logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
10
4
Yards / Game
12
2
Passing Yards / Game
24
11
Rushing Yards / Game
18
2

EPA

EPA / Play
13
2
EPA / Pass
9
1
EPA / Rush
23
4

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
24
Interceptions / Game
8
12
Fumbles / Game
9
22
Turnover EPA / Game
28
16

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
6
13
4th Down Efficiency
30
10
RZ Efficiency
13
11
Texans Offense vs Falcons Defense
Texans logo
Falcons logo

Total

Points / Game
11
17
Yards / Game
13
13
Passing Yards / Game
25
8
Rushing Yards / Game
2
7

EPA

EPA / Play
14
14
EPA / Pass
10
16
EPA / Rush
11
8

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
29
28
Interceptions / Game
4
11
Fumbles / Game
20
17
Turnover EPA / Game
20
27

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
9
30
4th Down Efficiency
30
27
RZ Efficiency
22
8

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

ATL logo

Falcons

7-3
SU
4-4-2
ATS
2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/18
4
W
W
O
09/25
-3
L
L
U
10/02
2
W
L
O
10/09
-11
L
L
U
10/16
14
W
W
U
10/23
7
W
W
U
11/06
24
W
W
U
11/13
-3
L
L
U
11/20
6
W
P
U
11/27
10
W
P
U
HOU logo

Texans

7-3
SU
6-3-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/18
10
W
W
U
09/25
-7
L
L
O
10/02
7
W
W
U
10/09
-5
L
L
U
10/16
-15
L
L
U
10/23
34
W
W
O
10/30
10
W
P
U
11/06
18
W
W
U
11/13
28
W
W
O
11/27
7
W
W
U