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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. falcons @ vikings week 1, 2019

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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ATL logo
ATLFalcons
-
12
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
0
28
MINVikings
-
MIN logo
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
0
0
0
12
12
Vikings
14
7
7
0
28

Spread

MIN logo
-4

Total

UNDER
47

Game Statistics

General
Falcons logo
Vikings logo
Total Yards
345
269
Total Plays
69
49
Yards / Play
5.0
5.5
EPA / Play
-0.18
+0.10
Passing Yards
272
97
Comp/Att
33/48(69%)
8/10(80%)
Yards / Pass
5.7
9.7
EPA / Pass
-0.16
+0.84
Rushing Yards
73
172
Rush Attempts
17
38
Yards / Rush
4.3
4.5
EPA / Rush
-0.46
-0.02
Downs & Conversions
Falcons logo
Vikings logo
1st Downs
27
18
Passing 1st downs
16
4
Rushing 1st downs
5
10
Penalty 1st downs
6
4
3rd Down %
25%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
2
5
3rd Down Attempts
8
10
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Falcons logo
Vikings logo
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-17.78
--
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-32
-1
Sack EPA
-6.34
-0.89
Penalties
9
11
Penalty Yards
78
100
Penalty EPA
-10.27
-13.40

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
MIN logo
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0

Win Probability

Market64.7%
Model64.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+82
Home nfelo
1,542
Away nfelo
1,498
Home Field
+48.1
Base HFA
+58.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-10.5
Net QB Adjustment
-10.6
Home QB Adjustment
+0.4
Away QB Adjustment
+10.9
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
105.3
Model Spread
-4.0

Quarterbacks

M. Ryan headshot

M. Ryan

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+10.9
Value
Ptile
10/22
5.1
80
11/04
6.8
89
11/11
6.9
89
11/18
-1.0
39
11/22
2.7
68
12/02
-3.8
23
12/09
2.5
66
12/16
4.2
75
12/23
2.3
65
12/30
5.2
81
K. Cousins headshot

K. Cousins

Proj. Value
+0.0
Team Elo Adj
+0.4
Value
Ptile
10/21
2.0
62
10/28
2.3
65
11/04
-1.3
37
11/18
0.1
47
11/25
8.9
94
12/02
-3.0
27
12/10
-1.7
35
12/16
-2.1
33
12/23
4.5
77
12/30
-3.2
26

Team Matchup Ranks

Falcons Offense vs Vikings Defense
Falcons logo
Vikings logo

Total

Points / Game
13
6
Yards / Game
5
13
Passing Yards / Game
2
24
Rushing Yards / Game
30
17

EPA

EPA / Play
13
5
EPA / Pass
15
6
EPA / Rush
23
12

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
2
23
Interceptions / Game
21
3
Fumbles / Game
18
3
Turnover EPA / Game
10
30

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
10
19
4th Down Efficiency
4
22
RZ Efficiency
25
2
Vikings Offense vs Falcons Defense
Vikings logo
Falcons logo

Total

Points / Game
11
22
Yards / Game
18
20
Passing Yards / Game
32
1
Rushing Yards / Game
8
15

EPA

EPA / Play
10
21
EPA / Pass
9
24
EPA / Rush
13
15

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
26
6
Interceptions / Game
7
18
Fumbles / Game
25
14
Turnover EPA / Game
21
8

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
9
21
4th Down Efficiency
16
26
RZ Efficiency
10
19

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

ATL logo

Falcons

5-5
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/22
3
W
L
U
11/04
24
W
W
O
11/11
-12
L
L
U
11/18
-3
L
L
U
11/22
-14
L
L
U
12/02
-10
L
L
U
12/09
-14
L
L
O
12/16
26
W
W
O
12/23
14
W
W
U
12/30
2
W
L
O
MIN logo

Vikings

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/21
20
W
W
O
10/28
-10
L
L
U
11/04
15
W
W
U
11/18
-5
L
L
O
11/25
7
W
W
U
12/02
-14
L
L
U
12/10
-14
L
L
U
12/16
24
W
W
O
12/23
18
W
W
U
12/30
-14
L
L
U