ATLFalcons
-
12
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
028
MINVikings
-
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
0
0
0
12
12
Vikings
14
7
7
0
28
Spread
-4
Total
UNDER
47
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
345
269
Total Plays
69
49
Yards / Play
5.0
5.5
EPA / Play
-0.18
+0.10
Passing Yards
272
97
Comp/Att
33/48(69%)
8/10(80%)
Yards / Pass
5.7
9.7
EPA / Pass
-0.16
+0.84
Rushing Yards
73
172
Rush Attempts
17
38
Yards / Rush
4.3
4.5
EPA / Rush
-0.46
-0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
27
18
Passing 1st downs
16
4
Rushing 1st downs
5
10
Penalty 1st downs
6
4
3rd Down %
25%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
2
5
3rd Down Attempts
8
10
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-17.78
--
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-32
-1
Sack EPA
-6.34
-0.89
Penalties
9
11
Penalty Yards
78
100
Penalty EPA
-10.27
-13.40
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market64.7%
Model64.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+78
Home nfelo
1,541
Away nfelo
1,500
Home Field
+47.5
Base HFA
+57.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-10.4
Net QB Adjustment
-10.6
Home QB Adjustment
+0.4
Away QB Adjustment
+10.9
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
105.3
Model Spread
-4.0
Quarterbacks
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+10.9
K. Cousins
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+0.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Falcons Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
6
Yards / Game
5
13
Passing Yards / Game
2
24
Rushing Yards / Game
30
17
EPA
EPA / Play
13
5
EPA / Pass
15
6
EPA / Rush
23
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
23
Interceptions / Game
21
3
Fumbles / Game
18
3
Turnover EPA / Game
10
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
19
4th Down Efficiency
4
22
RZ Efficiency
25
2
Vikings Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
22
Yards / Game
19
20
Passing Yards / Game
32
1
Rushing Yards / Game
8
15
EPA
EPA / Play
10
21
EPA / Pass
9
24
EPA / Rush
12
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
6
Interceptions / Game
7
18
Fumbles / Game
25
14
Turnover EPA / Game
21
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
21
4th Down Efficiency
16
26
RZ Efficiency
10
19
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Falcons
5-5
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U
Vikings
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U