ATLFalcons
2-1
28
TBD
TCF Bank Stadium
82°F
041
MINVikings
1-2
TBD
TCF Bank Stadium
82°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
7
7
14
0
28
Vikings
14
10
3
14
41
Spread
+6
Total
OVER
48
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
411
560
Total Plays
64
75
Yards / Play
6.4
7.5
EPA / Play
+0.17
+0.31
Passing Yards
288
--
Comp/Att
25/41(61%)
19/31(61%)
Yards / Pass
7.0
--
EPA / Pass
+0.19
+0.46
Rushing Yards
123
241
Rush Attempts
22
44
Yards / Rush
5.6
5.5
EPA / Rush
+0.21
+0.17
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
26
Passing 1st downs
16
14
Rushing 1st downs
6
11
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
67%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
10
6
3rd Down Attempts
15
13
Red Zone %
100%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
4
Red Zone Attempts
1
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.87
--
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-10
--
Sack EPA
-1.44
--
Penalties
5
6
Penalty Yards
50
40
Penalty EPA
-4.62
-4.79
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market69.8%
Model59.9%
Spread Pick
Vikings+6.0
Expected Value
+18.4%
Cover Probability
60.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+40
Home nfelo
1,473
Away nfelo
1,515
Home Field
+73.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+8.6
Home QB Adjustment
+22.2
Away QB Adjustment
+13.6
Market Regression
-60.0
Final Difference
-69.7
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+13.6
T. Bridgewater
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
+22.2
No recent game data available
Team Matchup Ranks
Falcons Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
11
Yards / Game
7
14
Passing Yards / Game
2
12
Rushing Yards / Game
24
24
EPA
EPA / Play
11
14
EPA / Pass
11
18
EPA / Rush
22
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
5
Interceptions / Game
17
19
Fumbles / Game
15
27
Turnover EPA / Game
14
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
20
4th Down Efficiency
14
31
RZ Efficiency
6
18
Vikings Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
27
Yards / Game
26
32
Passing Yards / Game
26
8
Rushing Yards / Game
14
21
EPA
EPA / Play
18
28
EPA / Pass
24
29
EPA / Rush
2
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
20
Interceptions / Game
26
13
Fumbles / Game
1
16
Turnover EPA / Game
20
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
32
4th Down Efficiency
14
19
RZ Efficiency
13
21
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Falcons
4-6
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U
Vikings
4-5-1
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U